Before diving in, a few housekeeping items…

1. Recall I officially introduced my PFF-data-backed spreadsheet and named it Mizo on Tuesday - go check it out.

2. Remember to click the “Read Online” link in the top right part of this email for a fuller and easier read version of the newsletter.

3. Feedback is helpful - yes, this is my first year, but as Rule 76 continues to grow, I’m all ears on how to improve or make the consumption process easier for the reader.

4. Referrals are extremely welcome and you may even earn a prize or two…who doesn’t want a free tee shirt?!?

Alright, grab your calculators and let’s get nerdy!

Expanding Mizo - Man Vs. Zone Coverage

Although Mizo is technically meant for the offensive and defensive line matchup data, I work within the same spreadsheet for this Man vs. Zone Coverage analysis, so for all intents and purposes, this is all Mizo.

I feel like mainstream sports media is constantly referencing teams’ Man and Zone coverage stats. This coordinator plays heavy zone defense while this one plays man. This QB is so much better against man and this receiver is the key to beating a zone defense…blah blah blah.

But I’ve also found it incredibly difficult to actually find this Man vs. Zone coverage data (even with PFF Premium). I finally stumbled across this PFF article that references the coverage statistics but it’s a far cry from a usable dataset. It also wasn’t published for Week 18 or for the postseason so far (perhaps because it’s Fantasy-focused).

However, thanks to my handy dandy Excel skills, I was able to scrape the data and put something together (although it’s technically only 17 weeks of data).

So here’s what we’re looking at for this weekend. Honestly, I’ve only been using this part of Mizo for a few weeks and generally there a few more outliers than this. Overall, not a great start, but let’s proceed.

If you had to pick outliers, it would be the Chargers, Rams, and Vikings for playing Zone coverage and Steelers and I guess the Broncos and Ravens for Man coverage.

Opposing offenses for those first three include the Rams, Texans, and Vikings, so let’s take a look at their receivers’ target % (targets as a percentage of snaps) against Zone defense.

The green bar is the player’s target % against Zone coverage while the red bar is the difference between the player’s target % against Zone and Man coverage. For example, a positive red bar indicates the player’s target % is higher against Zone coverage than Man coverage (i.e., more likely to receive targets), and vice-versa.

What I’m looking for here is big positive red bars - players that are more frequently targeted against Zone coverage that are playing against teams who tend to play a lot of Zone coverage.

Unfortunately, there’s not much to go off of - perhaps Robert Woods or Joe Mixon, but I’m not sure about those - Woods doesn’t even have props listed at the major public books yet. Something to keep an eye on…

As for Man coverage, the three offenses I want to look at are the Ravens, Bills, and Steelers.

This is a bit more promising but I’m still hesitant on everything this chart tells me. For starters, the Ravens’ receiving core will be highly variable with Zay Flower’s official absence on Saturday. Tylan Wallace doesn’t have the snap count for me trust him and I’m not sure about Agholor either. Maybe…

Skipping ahead to Keon Coleman… the first time I ever used this part of Mizo, I went heavy on Keon Coleman receiving yards. Fortunately it hit, but he only had one long catch on a relatively lucky scramble drill - so I’m not sure how much I trust those numbers.

As for George Pickens, I kind of like it. The Ravens’ secondary isn’t all that, and with an expectedly trailing game script, you’d think Pickens would be fairly involved. Problem is, the Steelers offense has been stinky lately.

Pickens’ prop line is set at 55.5 which is nearly 10 yards less than his season-long yards/game and likely so heavily discounted due to his big ol’ goose egg last game against the Bengals.

Could we “buy” him at a discount? Or is something just not right since returning from injury in week 17?

I actually feel more comfortable taking his longest reception O 25.5 yards - I broke this down in Week 11 in this exact matchup and it hit seamlessly, but since then, the Ravens have been giving up fewer and fewer explosives. I’m not rushing, but this is my leading lady for this game (so far).

Finally, I have one more chart to show off. Bear with me on this one, but since most of these teams play an average-to-above-average amount of Zone, I wanted to look at the difference between a player’s Zone target % and Man target % (light green bar below) and add it to his opposing defense’s % of Zone coverage (black bar below).

Deep breath…

In this chart, I’m essentially looking for the the players who may be more likely to see an abnormally high number of targets based on their opponent and the way they are used against similar opponents.

For example, if a player’s prop line is based on their season-long statistics and mirrors their typical yards per game, this could be an indicator for them to come in higher than than average in this particular game.

This can be useful, but it’s very much in Beta phase and requires some added context behind it. Take Cooper Kupp, for example - his target % against Zone is way higher than against Man, and Puka Nacua is the opposite, so you’d expect Kupp to excel when the Rams play against a zone-heavy scheme…but despite the split, Nacua’s overall target % is still dominant regardless of the defense. It just tends to be even higher against Man. In other words, don’t make the mistake of reading this as “buy Kupp” and “fade Nacua”.

Context is always needed, and I always trust what my own eyes see before blindly betting the numbers, but when the numbers back up what my gut says…that’s a good combination.

Thank you, Mizo!

No excuses, play like a champion.