Before getting too far into it, be sure to check out my Divisional Round Preview and Saturday Recap for more detail and context around the rest of this post.

Also a reminder to please not hesitate to share this glorious newsletter with all your betting friends.

There are only two more weekends of football left, but they will be must-see, and who doesn’t want to have an “angle” for a little action before settling in to watch!?

Divisional Round Performance Recap

Well…that was the best weekend of football of the entire year, huh?

And it was my 2nd best week in terms of absolute units won and 4th best in terms of returns.

• Divisional Round: +17.1u, +50.6% return

• Cumulative: +26.9u, +4.5%

Parlays, Teasers, & Round Robins

I’m not going to beat around the bush…it was a great weekend and extremely close to being a phenomenal weekend.

It’s hard to imagine getting too much better than +17.1u, but being 16 Derrick Henry rushing yards, a Derrick Henry TD, and/or a Mark Andrews TD away from easily doubling that is insane.

Sure, there were some bad reads on the week in there as well (Detroit losing literally floored me), but I will tip my cap to myself on playing the tight ends and the star running backs.

Gibbs and Saquon put on clinics and if Lamar didn’t playoff-Lamar, Henry has a good chance at cracking 100 and/or scoring a TD which would have just been perfection.

But the real props belong to the Tight Ends. A whopping 7 out of 9 starting TEs (including Likely because duh) had 40+ receiving yards this weekend. That’s crazy considering most of their props were in the 25-40 yard range to begin with. And it turned my 1.5u 9-leg Round Robin (by 4’s) into 5.8u…ahthankyou.

And to top it all off, 5-10 of them (now also including Knox) caught TDs. And even though 5/10 seems like a lot less than 7/9, the odds for TDs are much juicier, so when parlayed in many small combinations, it yields much greater returns. That 10-leg RR (by 4s) turned my 1.0u into 9.4u…AHTHANKYOU.

Sunday parlays didn’t go as well, but there were some nice boosts that needed to be taken advantage of, so no regrets.

Rams vs. Eagles

The end of this game was extremely interesting for spread bettors. I believe this line opened closer to PHI -4.5-5.0 but closed PHI -6.5-7.0, which (once again) means early spread bettors won, but late spread bettors lost on a late Matthew Stafford comeback.

And honestly, we were extremely close to a full Stafford comeback and victory…the dude silenced the haters about his performance in cold weather. He was no-lookin’ passing all over the place.

But there’s not much you can do when Saquon is at his best. I started to get pretty worried there in the second half when the Eagles were calling inside runs and getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage over and over and over again. But Saquon finally broke through for his second 60+ TD run of the game and helped cash those Saquon/Gibbs/Henry round robins in the section above.

As for the Live bets, I had placed a few Sunday parlays that included first half Unders and when it became apparent Stafford was competent in the cold, I knew I was sunk. At nearly halftime, the Live O/U of 42.5 implied fewer than 21 points would be scored in the second half…even as the snow started to stick to the field.

We’ve learned this year that snow typically benefits the offenses, especially competent ones, and I fully expected Saquon to be able to close out the game. So I used both Live boosts available at FanDuel and Draftkings for the Over and the Eagles to cover 5.5 (in case of OT)…and it worked!

Ravens vs. Bills

The Return Of “Playoff Lamar”

You just hate to see it if you’re a Ravens fan. 3 turnovers to the Bills’ 0.

What more can you possibly do? Zay Flowers would have helped, but you know deep down that if Playoff Lamar returned in the Divisional Round, there was no way you could get through Kansas City and the Super Bowl…

If Derrick Henry can’t fix the problem then I’m not sure I know what can. And ugh…Mark Andrews. No words…

On the plus side, this was an awesome game to watch and certainly got me excited for the Conference Championship and Super Bowl.

I was definitely very confident in the Under and even though the game started off fast, I still thought it would settle down, and it did. But then it started to pick up again, and I felt like I had enough riding on U 51.5 that I could cut my losses on one bet and cash out for net -0.5u. Turns out it was the right call because the game landed on 52 (of course).

As for Justice Hill, his receiving props are supposed to hit when the Ravens lose. They didn’t even target him until the final two minutes! Instead, he had 50 rushing yards?!? That’s more than Lamar! I saw his snaps increasing, but I definitely didn’t think his usage would be on the ground.

Conference Championship Weekend - Early Bets

Alright a few things to call out here:

1. Full previews on these games to come this weekend, but

2. It’s important to lock in any high-conviction bets early in the week before the lines move out of your favor. For instance, I saw the Eagles open at -4.5 and didn’t pull the trigger and now it’s -6.5. That’s a major swing. Josh Allen TD opened at +110 and it’s down to +100, which brings me to my next point…

3. How is Josh Allen TD priced at plus odds?!? The man is their goal line back and wants to beat the Chiefs more than anyone on the planet. AND he does the tush push. There are some guys out there that are an auto-bet at plus odds in games that matter, and Josh Allen is one of them. For reference, Jalen Hurts is another one, and he’s priced at -135 WITH A KNEE INJURY. I’d still bet this at +100 but I think this thing gets to -105 and maybe as far as -115 by game time on Sunday, so if you like it, bet it now.

4. You’ll notice the quite substantial increase in unit size on that Josh Allen bet. I don’t think I’ve gone higher than 2.0u on any single bet this year outside of maybe Mike Gesicki in Week 10…and let’s just say that didn’t go well, so I’m really hoping this isn’t a repeat of history. I just think +110 is an absurd price for Josh Allen and part of me wanted to stretch my bet just for bragging rights. We’ll see…

5. Back to point #1, there will be more analysis to come, but the rest of these bets revolve around the Chiefs’ defense struggling against tight ends and my early expectation for the Chiefs’ offense to roll out heavy 12 personnel (two TEs), which should give opportunities to TE2, Noah Gray. The Ravens did the same and Likely and Andrews led the team in receiving. I like Kelce too but his line has skyrocketed after his 100+ yard performance last week. Anything below 70 might still be worth betting, but I’m not gonna rush it. Gray, on the other hand, has a much more obtainable line.

More to come this weekend. Happy betting and happy football!

No excuses, play like a champion.