Let’s start with the attention-grabber sub-headline…Mizo is dead.

I know, I know - he just got all growed up and introduced to everyone a couple weeks ago and now he’s gone…what happened?

PFF happened. For whatever reason, they decided to change their Matchups tool to focus on skill players as opposed to offensive and defensive lines, so the data that feeds Mizo is no longer available.

Let me put it simply…this is an outrage.

As if the big guys aren’t overlooked enough, now the most reputable data provider takes away the only section analyzing their collective impact?

Hey PFF, how about you take the names off the backs of their jerseys while you’re at it, and tell all their kids Santa’s not real.

Cowards.

Just like our lineman, Mizo will never be forgotten.

Divisional Round Preamble

Alright, onto the real stuff. This isn’t a particularly insightful take, but it won’t take long for you to realize my favorite “things to happen” this weekend are the Lions to score and the Chiefs to win.

Secondarily I think there is a theme of power offenses bullying smaller/speedier defenses. In terms of props, I think this translates to RBs and TEs, as well as Philly, Baltimore, and Detroit.

Betting becomes very difficult towards the end of the season. The number of angles you can take rapidly diminishes while the market simultaneously becomes more efficient.

Like I’ve said in previous posts, all things Over-related will be generally inflated given the increased popularity of betting during the postseason. And like I said in yesterday’s post, I got super busy this week and fell behind…which means not only are the Over lines generally inflated, but they’re time-inflated this late in the week as well.

Hopefully it doesn’t matter, but I wanted to at least acknowledge the fact that I know I’m betting like a chump. Sue me (actually please don’t).

As a result, I went with a lot of plus odds bets in the form of parlays and round robins this week. What does that mean? Low floor and high ceiling (i.e., high variance in my results).

I have fallen into this trap earlier in the year, getting caught up in chasing the juicy odds, but this week I think it’s more of a function of being late to the table and only having a limited “menu” from which to order.

Last thing, don’t forget to use your promos this week and the remaining two weeks. There should be some pretty useful boosts out there for all of the remaining games.

Official Picks (Not Actual Bets)

Injuries/News

• HOU - Azeez Al-Shaair (LB) is expected to play. Recall he didn’t play in the Texans’ matchup with the Chiefs earlier in the year. He’s the green dot and important for communication on that side of the ball.

• HOU - Joe Mixon (RB) expected to play vs. the Chiefs (ankle).

• KC - Jaylen Watson (CB) remains Questionable but was activated off IR on Friday (lower leg). KC’s defense, and particularly the weaker part of its defense (secondary), is trending extremely positively (health-wise), which should be scary for everyone in their path.

• KC - Mecole Hardman (WR) remains on IR and won’t play against the Texans.

• PHI - Nakobe Dean (LB) sent to IR earlier this week after leaving last week’s game with a knee injury.

• LAR - Ahkello Witherspoon (CB) is Questionable for Sunday against the Eagles. How much of an impact is this if the Eagles don’t even need to pass the ball? See more below.

• LAR - Troy Reeder (LB) ruled out Sunday.

• LAR - Tyler Higbee (TE) doesn’t carry an injury designation and is expected to play Sunday (ribs). Higbee seemed to be the key to opening up the Rams’ offense last week considering it stalled soon after Higbee left with another injury.

• BAL - Zay Flowers (WR) listed as Doubtful for Sunday’s game. Given the temperatures and what the internet doctors are saying, it’d be shocking if Flowers plays and even more shocking if he was anything other than a decoy (if he does play).

Weather

We more or less have what you’d expect for football in January being played in Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Buffalo. I think the below articulates it pretty well, but I’d expect the cold temps in the outdoor games to somewhat temper offensive scoring rates.

At least 4/6 of those teams are run-dominant as well, so I wouldn’t be too quick to go shopping for Overs there.

Imagine trying to tackle Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, or Josh Allen in the second half when you’re already banged up and tired and it’s freezing cold.

Parlays, Teasers, & Round Robins

Explanations for most of these are below, but to put it simply, go Lions, Chiefs, RBs, and TEs!

Also note the round robins are technically two components - one for the round robin and one for the parlay. The odds shown reflect the parlay because the odds for the round robin are hard to show. When it says “by 2’s” or “by 4’s”, I’m just rooting for at least 2 (or 4) of those things to happen. The full parlay never hits but you always have to bet it just in case. The vast majority of the “unit” is on the round robin, not the parlay.

Texans vs. Chiefs

Key Trends

• Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS as a favorite of 6+ points this season but won all seven games outright.

• Texans are 0-5 all-time on the road in the playoffs and have never reached a conference championship.

• Dome teams playing outdoors in sub-30°F playoff games are 2-7 straight up over the past 20 years, with an average loss margin of 10 points.

• Andy Reid is 19-11 ATS with extra time to prepare.

Key Themes

• Patrick Mahomes has a career postseason touchdown-to-interception ratio of 41:8. While his turnover-worthy play rate of 2.7% during the regular season actually isn’t that good, it reduces to 1.7% in the postseason, which is top tier.

• Chiefs defensive front is dominant and should be able to exploit Houston’s weak offensive line.

• Chiefs defense tends to perform well against offenses with high-predictability, which is the Texans.

• Houston is a dome team playing away in a hostile and cold environment.

• Houston’s pass rush is likely their strongest unit while KC’s offensive line is likely their weakest unit. However, Houston struggles against the quick, short pass, which Mahomes can certainly exploit.

Death By A Thousand Cuts

Basically, this is the kind of game where the “professionals” and true “models” out there will point to Houston because it’s just too big of a number. If this matchup was during the regular season, I’d be inclined to go with Houston here. But it’s not. This is the postseason, and the rules of engagement with Mahomes in the postseason are very, very different.

We’ve all seen it. Something just switches for him and Kelce (and seemingly everyone else on the team as well). I’m still hesitant to take the Chiefs at that big of a spread, but I am extremely confident in the them winning outright.

I also think their defense will absolutely school C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ offense but I thought that last weekend too and Stroud/Texans proved me super dooper wrong.

Yes, that section title is intentionally a Taylor Swift reference and yes I’ve used it before, but it’s actually super appropriate. That’s what the Chiefs do and I don’t have any reason to think today will be any different. Mahomes will dink/dunk and scramble his way down the field no matter how bad his offensive line is and how good the Texans’ pass rush is.

Sure, he’ll go down a few times and a few drives will stall out, but when it matters, he will come through.

And yes, I’ve written about Kelce’s prop lines being inflated because of his popularity, but I feel like anything in the 50s is actually too low now? The Chiefs definitely have a lot more targets and playmakers this year, but Kelce almost always has 70+ and a TD in playoff games. I’ll roll the dice…

If I lose all my money because the Texans beat the Chiefs, I’m perfectly fine with taking that on the chin and getting back up next week.

Mahomes is inevitable.

Commanders vs. Lions

Key Trends

• Detroit has won 12 indoor games this season, the most by any team in NFL history.

• Washington has won seven games on the final play this season.

Key Themes

• Both teams rely heavily on 4th down convergence.

• Jared Goff leads the league's top passing attack, excelling against man coverage (No. 1 in EPA/dropback, TD%, and first downs per dropback).

• Washington’s struggles against outside zone runs and fast-paced scoring, which has Jahmyr Gibbs written all over it.

• Detroit’s defensive health is improving and remains effective against the run (ranked 6th in success rate allowed since Week 10) while Washington’s run game has struggled recently.

• Jayden Daniels struggles against man coverage (15% drop in completion rate) while excelling in high-leverage situations (7.5% higher TD rate vs. man coverage).

I’m actually pretty surprised this Total has stayed in the mid-50s. That’s literally so high, but if there’s gonna be a game that gets there, it’s obviously this one.

Two risk-seeking offenses with leaky defenses playing indoors on a fast track.

From what I gather, the experts out there think this game comes down to 4th down variance for both teams. I buy it for Washington, but I’m not sure I do for Detroit.

The Lions’ offense has been absolutely dominant and this defense (in my opinion) does not pose a challenge. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions end up scoring on every drive of the game. Remember when they played the Titans?

As for the Commanders, how much do I trust their offense? It can be clunky, but Jayden Daniels has been so cool under pressure the whole season. Momentum is a real thing and they have it right now.

So will they be able to keep pace with the Lions’ offense? Will they be able to put together methodical drives to keep the ball out of Goff’s hands?

While I do think Jayden Daniels should be able to scramble effectively and likely extend some drives against Detroit’s man-heavy defense, I don’t think they can keep pace OR sustain drives enough to keep Detroit from putting up 35+ points.

However, I’ll acknowledge that is the recipe for my bets crumbling (Washington putting together long, methodical drives and slowing the game down). I think that’s their only path to staying in this game. A shootout belongs to the Lions.

As for the props, how do you choose with this offense? It’s either a “you can’t go wrong” scenario or “there’s only one ball” scenario and I’m not totally sure which one it will be. I do know Ben Johnson has been interviewing all over the place and while he has already earned a head coach spot, it certainly wouldn’t hurt the negotiating to put up 35-40+ in this game…

When push comes to shove, I’m going with Amon-Ra and Gibbs. Stars will be stars.

Rams vs. Eagles

Key Themes

• Rams defensive front is undersized and can struggle against strong rushing teams like the Eagles, particularly in counter and outside zone concepts - the Rams rank 31st against counter runs.

• Stafford excels against the blitz but the Eagles have the League’s lowest blitz rate but still generate excellent natural pressure.

• Nakobe Dean’s absence is notable for the middle of Philly’s defense.

• Rams use play action at the League’s highest rate and the Eagles rank 4th most sensitive to it.

No specific bets for Sunday’s games yet (there’s still time, let’s see how Saturday goes first).

That said, I’m definitely leaning Eagles in this game and it has everything to do with their offensive line absolutely bullying the Rams’ young and relatively undersized defensive front.

There’s a lot of chatter out there about Hurts and the passing offense being a huge problem.

Well, I’ll quote myself: “two things can be true at the same time.”

I agree the Eagles’ passing offense is problematic, but I don’t think it’s an issue for them until they meet an opponent who can stifle their rushing attack, and I don’t think that’ll happen until they hypothetically reach the Super Bowl.

Think about who’s left and who could actually stop Saquon and Hurts…

Rams, Commanders, Lions? Nope.

Bills? Nope.

Only the Ravens and Chiefs could slow down that machine. That’s not to say the Lions or Commanders couldn’t beat the Eagles in a shootout, but if they do reach the Super Bowl and meet the Chiefs or Ravens, I don’t think I’m a buyer of the Eagles any longer.

We’ll see…as for Sunday, you either think that Eagles passing thing is a problem and that Stafford/McVay have another gear in the playoffs to lead them to victory, or you think the Eagles dominate the line of scrimmage and Stafford struggles in the cold. I’m thinking the ladder.

Ravens vs. Bills

Key Themes

• Buffalo is weaker against power rushing and zone run concepts - Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards in their last matchup.

• Baltimore’s pass defense has improved immensely since Week 11 after moving Marlon Humphrey to the slot and Kyle Hamilton to safety. Although, the Steelers did hit some explosives last week.

• Josh Allen may have to sling it (Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman are deep threats).

Well this is a doozy. I think most “professionals” and “models” would point to the Ravens here. Their team is indisputably better on paper. But Josh Allen is Josh Allen.

If Lamar doesn’t crumble in the cold and the play calling doesn’t get all weird, which we’ve seen from the Ravens in the past, I do think they should in this game. But otherwise, Josh Allen can will his team to victory.

I’m very excited to watch and absolutely will not be putting money behind a side in this game. However, the Total is another story.

Personally, I think it’s wayyyyyy too high. Perhaps it’s the books luring in public bettors who see two MVP candidates going up against each other and just automatically think that equates to points. Whatever it is, it’s fishy to me.

These are two run-first offenses playing in literally freezing temperatures at night. The Bills’ defense limits explosives and with the exception of the second half of last week’s game against the Steelers, the Ravens’ defense has does the same since Week 11.

Yes, Zay Flowers’ absence hurts and even levels the playing field, but Derrick Henry should have success in this situation and if Buffalo decides to load the box, Mark Andrews and Isiaah Likely will be over the middle of the field.

Again, unless Lamar goes full playoffs Lamar (bad), then I don’t see a ton of points here, at least outside of the two-minute drills.

We’ll see, but I’d expect to put some action in tomorrow on the Under.

No excuses, play like a champion.