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NFL Divisional Round - Saturday Mini Betting Recap
Down Goes Frazier - The Lions Are Deader Than Mizo
Rule 76
January 18, 2025
The Lions are deader than Mizo and now I don’t know what to believe.
I think I still believe in the Eagles but if the Lions can go down, the Eagles certainly can.
Even the Chiefs probably should have lost their game if the Texans had a shred of capability on Special Teams.
And I still feel good about the Baltimore/Buffalo Under, but that Commanders/Lions game is a prime example of how star players can change the trajectory of a game in an instant. Yes, both the Ravens and Bills have much better defenses than the Commanders and Lions, but still…it’s enough to give me pause.
Perhaps I just ride out what’s remaining on the Round Robins that are still in the money (and actually looking pretty promising).
We’ll see…
Saturday Performance Recap
Like most people, I ended up having a decent day thanks to the all around offensive explosion in the Commanders/Lions game - side bar, that’s why I like betting both props and game lines.
That way if the game doesn’t go your way, you still might hit on your props, and on the other side, if your player has a bad game or gets injured, you still have a chance to win your sides/totals bets. There’s no science to it, but I just like having both in the mix.
Side side bar, I’m curious how the public books did after that game - seems like every SGP under the sun hit (unless you had Lions winning/covering like me).
Results after Saturday:
Saturday: +4.8u, +23.9% (adjusted for bets still in play)
Cumulative: +14.6u, +2.5% (adjusted for bets still in play)
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
❌ ❌ 16 ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ 105 | 1.00u | 5-Leg SGP+ | +626 (50% profit boost) 🚀 |
❌ ❌ ✅ 105 ✅ 51 | 1.50u | 3-Leg SGP | +165 |
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ | 1.25u | 3-Leg SGP+ | +131 (30% profit boost) 🚀 |
Honestly, I can live with all of this. The unit sizes are relatively steep, but that just reflects the confidence I had in these bets. I have no remorse in betting the Lions to cover 5.5 points, and I only have a little remorse on betting the Mahomes completions.
In hindsight, that wasn’t the smartest given the likelihood of rustiness in the first quarter - Should have just slotted Kelce 40+ receiving yards in there and taken a hit on the odds. But still, it didn’t matter once the Lions lost.
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
✅ (Gibbs) | 1.00u | 100+ Rush Yd Club RR | +779 (by 2's, parlay) |
✅ (Gibbs) | 0.50u | 2 TD RR | +5938 (by 2's, parlay) |
✅ (in the money) ✅ (Kelce) ✅ (LaPorta) | 1.00u | TE TD 3-Leg RR | +1590 (by 2's, parlay) |
✅ (Kelce, Shultz, LaPorta) ❌ (Ertz) | 1.50u | Tight End Celebration - 40+ rec yds - 9-leg RR (Kelce, Schultz, Ertz, LaPorta, Goedert, Higbee, Likely, Andrews, Kincaid) | +45280 (by 4's, parlay) |
✅ (Kelce, LaPorta) ❌ (Schultz, Ertz) | 1.00u | Tight End Celebration - TD - 10-leg RR (Kelce, Schultz, Ertz, LaPorta, Goedert, Higbee, Likely, Andrews, Kincaid, Knox) | +26466890 (by 4's, parlay) |
Texans vs. Chiefs
Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
✅ 4 | 2.00u | Dalton Schultz O 3.5 rec | -138 |
❌ 16 | 2.00u | Patrick Mahomes O 24.5 completions | +102 |
✅ 117 | 0.75u | Travis Kelce O 51.5 rec yds | -110 |
✅ 117 | 0.25u | Travis Kelce 70+ rec yds | +240 |
Special Teams blunders cost the Texans at least a shot at taking down the Chiefs. Outside of that, I thought the Texans played well enough to win, or at least have a chance. But once again, Mahomes is inevitable. In hindsight, those Kelce bets feel pretty easy, huh?
I’m curious what the adjusted box score says - not something I typically look at but it probably has the Texans winning by like 30.
The Texans officially became the first team to outgain their opponent by over 100 yards with no turnovers and still lose a postseason game (previous sample size of 49).
Other observations:
Thoughts and prayers to Mahomes rushing prop bettors. He went for -9 on his final drive kneel downs, bringing his number from 23 (Over) to 14 (Under for most).
Lots of money swings with that final safety, bringing the Texans losing margin to 9 from 11. Given how this line moved throughout the week, this was a crazy important move. I’m sure there will be statistics everywhere soon.
Commanders vs. Lions
Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
❌ 51 | 1.00u | Jayden Daniels O 55.5 rush yds | -110 |
✅ 105 | 1.00u | Jahmyr Gibbs O 81.5 rush yds | -110 |
✅ 105 | 0.38u | Jahmyr Gibbs 100+ rush yds | +180 |
❌ 105 | 0.13u | Jahmyr Gibbs 150+ rush yds | +1120 |
✅ 137 | 1.00u | Amon-Ra St. Brown O 76.5 rec yds | -110 |
✅ 137 | 0.38u | Amon-Ra St. Brown 100+ rec yds | +255 |
❌ 137 | 0.13u | Amon-Ra St. Brown 150+ rec yds | +1120 |
❌ | 1.00u | DET O 34.5 team points | +122 |
❌ | 0.38u | DET O 41.5 team points | +400 |
❌ | 0.13u | DET O 48.5 team points | +1100 |
Live Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
✅ 70 | 1.25u | Jahmyr Gibbs O 42.5 rec yds | +115 (30% profit boost) 🚀 |
✅ 6 | 1.00u | Jahmyr Gibbs O 5.5 rec | +195 (50% profit boost) 🚀 |
✅ | 1.00u | Player to catch a pass - Jahmyr Gibbs (2nd Drive) | +250 (25% profit boost) 🚀 |
✅ 22 | 1.00u | Tim Patrick O 12.5 rec yds | -110 |
❌ 22 | 0.38u | Tim Patrick 25+ rec yds | +225 |
❌ 22 | 0.13u | Tim Patrick 60+ rec yds | +1260 |
Well this was really some game. I gotta hand it to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. They deserved to win that game 10 times over. It seems like the Lions’ defensive injuries finally came back to bite, but Daniels was still remarkable.
The Lions lost the turnover battle 5-0, and there’s really not much more to say than that.
It’ll be extremely interesting to see what happens at their Coordinator positions because in all likelihood, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn are gone next year.
Ugh, it just felt like this year was the Lions’ destiny and now it’s dead like Mizo.
No excuses, play like a champion.