Well…here we are. We have ONE. MORE. GAME… Chiefs vs. Eagles in the Superdome in New Orleans.

It’s been an incredible year and I’ve learned so much. From betting and researching to writing and marketing, it’s been a whirlwind of a 5-month period. And after a ton of work and nearly 800 wagers, I’m somehow up 21.0 units on year, which honestly feels amazing.

But it also feels a bit unnecessary because I clearly knew the Chiefs would be in the Super Bowl like so long ago…

If I would have just put a unit or two on that future, I’d be in the same place I am now but with a much happier wife…

Jokes aside, this newsletter has been so much fun for me and I can’t thank you enough for reading and following along. It’s not easy to consistently put your bet slip out there in the public, but it’s perhaps the best test there is.

We have one more ride, and before you ask, yes, I’m not afraid to admit that I’ll be capping my bankroll this week to guarantee I end the year in positive territory. My theme this year has been discipline, so there you go.

Now, let’s dive into this game!

Betting The Super Bowl

Starting on a bit of a downer - I actually don’t love betting on the Super Bowl. I’ve been alluding to it all postseason, but as the number of games declines while betting interest simultaneously rises, the number of opportunities is drastically reduced.

I’m not saying I’m a professional bettor with a team of math PHDs who can seamlessly locate mispriced numbers on a weekly basis, but I do think it’s easier to pick your spots within a full slate of games with more predictable game scripts rather than one on which everybody and their mom (literally) is also betting.

So what does that mean?

Everything is priced perfectly. Everyone has an opinion. But nobody really has an edge.

So how do you bet it?

Just have fun. I’ve written about the difference between gambling and investing but with the proper skill set and research…blah blah blah.

If you want to minimize your chances of losing money over the long-term, stay away from those multi-leg parlays and juicy quadruple digit odds bets. You know deep down that’s not how you actually win…

But for the Super Bowl? Have some fun (responsibly). Nobody needs to be grading anybody else on how they do for one specific game. Take a shot. Be the one to hit that +1000 4-legger.

But if you do, make sure you have the mindset of being content losing all of your money (just like going to the casino). And also realize that anything “fun to bet” like Overs will be generally juiced a couple degrees NOT in your favor. The public loves betting on fun stuff during the Super Bowl and the books know it.

But then again, it is fun…so do it! Just know what you’re getting into…

Promos

I thought this would be important, but honestly I haven’t found much to be helpful. Most of the books are essentially doing raffles and giveaways for making a TD bet. It’s definitely worth it to accept these promos IF you’re already planning on making TD scorer bets, but otherwise, there’s not really a clear advantage to any promos out there right now.

This is unfortunate - I thought we’d have some good boosts or even a deposit match.

Betting Lines

Alright let’s get into it. The spread and total have oscillated a little bit, but really not that much (which wouldn’t be expected for the Super Bowl where the books are really locked in).

• Spread: From what I can tell, the spread has moved between KC -1 and -2 but for the most part, has stood at KC -1.5. As expected, “sharp” money has come in on Philly (model-based) while the public is expected to more or less bet on Mahomes.

• Total: From what I can tell, the total opened around 50 and has moved between 50.5 and 48.5 before settling at 48.5 at most books (at the time of writing).

Injuries

Nothing too concerning on the surface. I think more importance lays with the players who are banged up despite not carrying an injury designation (Cam Jurgens, Landon Dickerson, and Jalen Hurts come to mind).

Key Trends

This list obviously isn’t exhaustive, but these are the ones I’ve found to be most interesting and helpful:

• The last three Super Bowls have been decided by exactly three points.

• Overs are 2-9 in the last 11 Super Bowls.

• First Half Unders are 9-0 in the last 9 Super Bowls.

• Turnover battle winners are 37-5 in Super Bowls.

• Teams with a top 2 rushing offense and top 2 defense (Philly) are 4-0 in Super Bowl history (although it’s been a while - shoutout to the ‘85 Bears).

• Mahomes has won 17 straight one-score games (longest streak in NFL history).

• Mahomes is 10-1 ATS in playoff games with a spread less than three points.

• Mahomes is 8-0 straight up against Vic Fangio defenses, although his red zone efficiency notably dips and has generally struggled in the past.

• Andy Reid is 29-4 coming off a bye (including playoffs).

• Hurts is #1 among QBs in playoff history for rushing TDs per game (1.2).

Matchups

This is tough because the Super Bowl is known to occasionally bring out some wonky game plans from teams.

And we know the Chiefs like to change it up. Football nerds have gone nuts over the fact that the Chiefs ran plays against Buffalo in key situations that they’ve never run before.

That’s what you can expect against the Chiefs (the unexpected). The only thing we know is that what we’ve seen from them recently probably won’t be the same as what we see from them on Sunday.

The Eagles, on the other hand, have been run-heavy and dominant all year; however, Jalen Hurts looked really good throwing the ball against the Commanders; howeverhowever, the Chiefs are a big step up in class from the Commanders.

So what can we expect?

Chiefs Offense / Eagles Defense

I want to reiterate the caveat at the beginning of this section…nobody actually knows what’s going to happen, but from consuming ideas from a bunch of people who think they do, here’s my two cents…

The Chiefs’ weakest unit on the field at any given time has to be its offensive line. Their run game is 30th in EPA per rush since Week 11, they have the second highest early-down pass rate, and Mahomes’ air yards per attempt are at an all-time low.

Meanwhile, Philly’s defense, and particularly its pass rush has been rockin’. They have the #1 pass rush win rate (55%) and I’ve seen some interesting stats (that I didn’t write down) about their sacks vs. blitz rate - indicating they both create natural pressure as well as cover well downfield.

What does all of this mean for the Chiefs offense? You’d think it’d mean short, quick passes early and often. This isn’t particularly inciteful considering they’ve been doing it all season. But what can they exploit?

Philly ranks bottom 5 in EPA per pass against two TE sets and has struggled against slot receivers and TEs. This obviously raises alarm bells for Travis Kelce, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chiefs get creative with the slot position while using Kelce as a decoy (enter Noah Gray, Hollywood Brown, and Xavier Worthy).

Problem is, Noah Gray has been extremely quiet since Brown re-entered the lineup, and with all of them (oh, and don’t forget about DeAndre Hopkins who is weirdly WR4 now), it’s tough to zero in on the right guy.

Plus, we know the Chiefs get extremely creative. So your guess is as good as mine as to who would benefit from that game plan. When push comes to shove, I’d still put my money on Kelce for one more go around.

But the real key for KC will be red zone TD convergence. They finished the year ranked #22 in this category, which is the lowest in the Mahomes era, despite reaching the end zone the most number of times in the Mahomes era.

Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense finished #5 in the League in preventing TDs in the red zone. This should scream Boswell (kicker), Under, and in any other non-Mahomes-Twilight-Zone situation, the Eagles ML.

Other areas this has me considering (regardless of whether they make it into the bet slip)

• Boswell field goals and kicking points.

• Eagles sacks (Nolan Smith Jr. stands out - he’s literally setting records and nobody talks about it enough).

• Kelce Overs (yards and receptions - particularly conservative alt lines in a parlay considering his general inflation).

• KC RB Unders (take your pick). My favorite is U longest rush. Kareem Hunt is very good at getting 4 yards but not typically much more than that, and Pacheco isn’t himself.

• Mahomes Over passing attempts and completions.

• Mahomes Over rushing attempts (be wary of yards given his history of deep kneel-downs to end the game).

  • I’d also be careful on these last two given Philly’s tendency to control time of possession…

Philly Offense / KC Defense

This side of the ball seems easier to break down, but for that reason, I’m less sure on how it’s actually going to play out.

The Eagles lead the League in rush attempts and rank last in pass attempts. Saquon led the League in rushing while the Eagles led the NFL in time of possession this year.

The Chiefs have struggled against the run lately, despite dominating against it early in the year. Meanwhile, they are #1 in EPA per pass attempt against top 10 passing offenses.

What does that mean? RUN THE FOOTBALL.

But I’ve heard many smart people say they think Philly will actually come out pass-happy in order to break the tendencies and expectations and ideally jump out to an quick lead.

That makes sense to me, and despite the season-long narrative, I actually do think Jalen Hurts can move the ball through the air, but I’m worried that game plan could devolve into the same trap that Buffalo (this year) and Baltimore (last year) fell into. Both teams seemed to have a great deal of success running the ball but ultimately didn’t stick with it…

Perhaps it’s the magnitude of the situation, or more likely, perhaps it’s the psychology of knowing Mahomes in on the other sideline. If you don’t put that man away by +2 scores by the end of the 3rd quarter, consider the game lost.

It’s just the reality of the situation…so do teams potentially get caught up in trying to build a big lead and abandon an otherwise successful run game in order to protect against the inevitable? It certainly seems so. Will the Eagles fall into the same trap? I guess we’ll see.

Other factors to consider: the Chiefs struggle most against 3-wide sets, which Philly runs over 80% of snaps. They also have struggled mightily against TEs all season. Goedert’s props are through the roof.

So how do I see this whole thing actually playing out? I do think there’s a scenario where Philly absolutely dominates in the trenches, Hurts and Saquon combine for a billion yards, and not only do they control the clock, but they also put the game well out of reach by the 4th quarter and prohibit Mahomes from even attempting a come-from-behind victory; however, I think that’s the least likely scenario here…

There’s also a scenario where the Chiefs dominate early and then the Eagles’ offense, which arguably isn’t built for comebacks, struggles to do just that. I’ve written “death by a thousand cuts” before…

What’s more likely is either a back and forth game or one in which Philly leads, but by no more than one possession heading into the fourth quarter. In both of those game scripts, it’s hard not to see Mahomes and the Chiefs pulling it out the vast majority of the time.

Nobody can be certain, but with 3 out of those 4 outcomes favoring the Chiefs, I’m confident enough to put my money on it.

For what it’s worth, I put all my notes into ChatGPT and it predicted a final score of Eagles 27, Chiefs 24. I would probably go with Eagles 21, Chiefs 23. We’ll see…

Official Picks

I’m sorry to the Eagles fan members of my family. This isn’t personal, it’s just the right thing to do.

Of course, it’s just one game - there’s always an “any given day” component. Even if the Panthers, Bears, Jets, Titans, etc. were on the other side of the field, there’s always a chance.

And the Eagles very well could be and probably are the better team on paper, but we all know by now…Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are inevitable.

The Bets

The Rationale

I already covered my previous bets in my Conference Championship recap and it basically comes down to taking Jalen Hurts TD at plus money EVERY day of the week.

I felt the same way about Josh Allen two weeks ago and that did NOT work out for me, but I’m doubling down with Hurts and this time, it’s going to come through.

As for the new bets, I’m trying to learn from my past and really focus on my highest conviction ideas. Of course, I want to bet on Saquon and Hurts, Kelce and Goedert, Mahomes, TD scorers, crazy parlays, etc.!

But again, I’m limiting my bankroll to guarantee a positive return on the year, and I’m also leaving 2.5 units to be bet Live.

Let’s take these one by one.

1) Chiefs ML - I think I covered this one pretty thoroughly in the above. I bet on the Eagles two years ago in this same scenario and after that game I vowed to never bet against Mahomes in a big game ever again. If I lose my money here, so be it. That’ll be a tip of the ol’ cap from me with absolutely no sleep lost. However, if I bet on the Eagles and Mahomes pulls it out again, I just couldn’t look myself in the mirror.

2) Butker FGs - The whole red zone efficiency stuff is really getting to me. Not only does it really make me worry for my Chiefs ML bet as a whole, but it makes me think Butker will be a big part of the game. We may not like his personal values, but the man is clutch in the postseason, and he’s used to doing it outside in the cold. Now he’s inside a toasty dome - if the Chiefs move the ball but get snuffed out in the red zone, I’m covered.

3) Mahomes Rushing Attempts - Think about the equation here: Strong Philly pass rush; weak KC offensive line; weak KC run game; average or below KC wideouts; fast turf; must-win scenario. All of that points to Mahomes scrambling. Whether he’s flushed out from immediate pressure or because there’s strong coverage down the field, I think he needs to run no matter the game script. Plus, you have a chance at kneel-downs to end the game or half.

4) Perine - Similar to last week (which hit), this is more of a Plums bet, but it really does make sense. The Chiefs shouldn’t be able to run the ball very well and they will most likely be finding themselves in 3rd down scenarios. Perine’s snap count has been reliable and he’s only under 7.5 receiving yards three times this entire season and only once since Week 5. In a sea of inflated numbers, I think this is a very fair price with a ton of upside potential. #PlumsForPerine ?

5) Nolan Smith - Honestly, the entire Philly defensive line could very well eat against this maligned Chiefs’ offensive line, but this dude has been on an absolute tear; especially in the postseason. Smith’s key is speed and playing indoor on a fast surface plays to his benefit. His prices have been nuked (meaning it would have been much better to bet on him two weeks ago), but I still want a piece of the action. When you’re hot you’re hot…

And that’s really it. Like I said, I’d love to bet on some of the star players but this late in the week for the Super Bowl, I’m just more comfortable taking the side roads with mostly Defense and Special Teams.

That said, anyone and everyone is fair game for Live bets. Once you get a chance to see the game plans, there may be better opportunities for some of those stars.

Here’s who I’ll be watching most closely for Live opportunities:

• Saquon/Hurts: looking for a slow start, ideally paired with Eagles lead. Those things are negatively correlated but imagine a long successful drive filled with Goedert, DeVonta Smith, and AJ Brown - the algorithm will take both Saquon’s and Hurts’ Live lines down and likely not fully account for a heavy shift back to run-heavy game script.

• Noah Gray: Like I said, he’s been really quiet since Hollywood Brown re-entered the lineup, so I’m not willing to spend my money pre-flop. BUT, if he’s on the field, running routes, and maybe he has an incomplete target…his line is really really low - 11.5 right now and could dip below 10 by the second quarter if he doesn’t reel one in before then.

• Kelce: also looking for a slow start here, hopefully paired with a 2-4 minute drive to end the first half - you know the ball will find its way to Kelce in that situation. Live Overs and Next Player to Catch A Pass are attractive in that situation.

• Spreads: Honestly, there could be opportunities to bet both sides Live depending on the ups and downs of the game. If the Eagles go up, consider the Chiefs ML hammered. If the Eagles are keeping it close but Chiefs take the lead, I’m not opposed to taking the Eagles to cover - particularly at +3.5 and +6.5.

Best of luck to everyone and always remember…

No excuses, play like a champion.