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NFL Conference Championship Betting Recap & Early Super Bowl Bets
Sobering Week Despite Going 6-6 On Official Picks
Rule 76
January 28, 2025
After winning four out of the prior 5 weeks, I was due for a bad one. Thankfully, it wasn’t anything like Weeks 5 or 14, and this time, I don’t look back on it with much frustration or regret.
Do I wish I would have placed my bets in step with my picks instead of entirely props?
Yes, but then again the same strategy worked for me seamlessly the last two weeks.
The biggest takeaway for me is that for once I’m not kicking myself Tuesday morning for being too aggressive and lacking discipline.
And it really wasn’t all bad. The end result of the games was very much inline with my picks (6/6 on Winner/Cover/O/U), and I had a couple nice parlays hit in the Commanders/Eagles game, and Mahomes got me a TD, but those were also pretty much the only hits and not enough to counterbalance my whale play on Josh Allen TD.
With that being the obvious miss, my expectations for the Bills/Chiefs game (in terms of personnel and play calling) were also just way off, so none of my other props hit either.
When it comes down to it, I can swallow a misread on game plan and expectations, as long as there’s no lazy oversight or lack of discipline (which was typically the culprit on my down weeks this year). Onto the next one…
Conference Championship: -5.9u, -29.2%
Cumulative: +21u, +3.4%
Source: Rule 76
Official Picks (Not Bets)
Matchup | Winner (ML) | Spread | Total (O/U) |
|---|---|---|---|
WAS / PHI | PHI ✅ | PHI -6.5 ✅ | O 47.5 ✅ |
BUF / KC | KC ✅ | KC -1.5 ✅ | O 48.5 ✅ |
Source: PFF
Like I said, I kind of wish I would have just went with my gut on the sides/totals rather than player props this week, but it is what it is…
As for the games, here are my really quick takeaways:
Commanders/Eagles
Saquon for president
Hurts balled out and proved the haters wrong
Did the Eagles somehow leave even more points on the board?
Pay attention to O-line injuries
I was between DeVonta Smith and Dallas Geodert. I went Smith. Should have went Goedert
Jayden Daniels is legit and the Commanders will probably be good for years to come.
Bills/Chiefs
Mahomes is cementing himself as the most clutch QB of all time
Where were all the TEs?!?
Pacheco not even close to healthy
Worthy is so fast
Josh Allen probably got that first down
Kincaid…yikes…but not as bad as Mark Andrews
Bills play calling extremely suspect
Josh Allen inches away from a TD on the biggest bet of my life was a big punch to the stomach
Apparently the refs can award TDs to counter bad behavior. That was wild
Worried about the Chiefs seeming ability to stop the tush push
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
❌ | 1.50u | 6-Leg TE Celebration TD Round Robin (Ertz, Goedert, Kelce, Gray, Kincaid, Knox) | +512535 (by 2's, parlay) 🚀 |
✅ | 0.50u | 4-Leg SGP | +1013 (50% profit boost) 🚀 |
✅ | 1.25u | 3-Leg SGP | +136 (30% profit boost) 🚀 |
❌ | 1.00u | FD Special - Travis Kelce 70+ rec yds & KC ML | +330 (50% profit boost) 🚀 |
Single Entries
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
❌ | 1.25u | DeVonta Smith O 48.5 rec yds | -110 |
❌ | 0.50u | DeVonta Smith 70+ rec yds | +235 |
❌ | 0.25u | DeVonta Smith 100+ rec yds | +760 |
❌ | 5.00u | Josh Allen TD | +110 |
❌ | 0.38u | Josh Allen 2 TD | +750 |
❌ | 0.13u | Josh Allen 3 TD | +5000 |
❌ | 1.00u | Dalton Kincaid O 34.5 rec yds | -110 |
❌ | 0.50u | Dalton Kincaid TD | +390 |
❌ | 1.00u | Dawson Knox O 15.5 rec yds | -110 |
❌ | 1.00u | Dawson Knox O 1.5 rec | -105 |
❌ | 0.50u | Dawson Knox TD | +700 |
✅ | 0.50u | Patrick Mahomes TD | +600 |
❌ | 1.50u | Noah Gray O 1.5 rec | -105 |
❌ | 0.38u | Noah Gray 3+ rec | +270 |
❌ | 0.13u | Noah Gray 4+ rec | +640 |
✅ | 1.25u | Samaje Perine O 8.5 rec yds | -118 |
❌ | 0.50u | Samaje Perine 25+ rec yds | +413 |
❌ | 0.25u | Samaje Perine 40+ rec yds | +1280 |
Super Bowl - Early Bets
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
5.00u | Jalen Hurts TD | +100 | |
0.75u | Jalen Hurts 2 TD | +700 | |
0.25u | Jalen Hurts 3 TD | +3800 |
That’s right…I’m doubling down on my Josh Allen TD losses with Jalen Hurts.
Once again, I logged on right after the conclusion of the Bills/Chiefs game and saw Hurts TD priced at even money…which once again is way off and likely way higher than it will be on Super Bowl Sunday.
There’s no need to recap his three TDs on Sunday, or his three TDs two years ago in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs…the man just scores. Plus, he’ll have two weeks to rehab his knee, even though that didn’t seem to limit him all that much this past weekend.
Unfortunately, his price is all the way down to -115, but I’d still take it if you like it. Just like Josh Allen, I think this price continues to drop over the next 1.5 weeks…and in my opinion, could even go as far as -150.
Honorable Mentions
Dallas Goedert - I’ve written ad nauseum about the Chiefs’ weakness against TEs and Goedert has been hot lately. Only problem is…his line reflects it. I’m not certain I want to jump on Goedert for 5 catches and 50+ yards. I’ll probably still get there, but it’s high enough to make me hesitate. We’ll see…
Chiefs ML - Sorry Iggles fans…but you know it’s the fiscally responsible move to put money on Mahomes. Now, if Mahomes wasn’t MAHOMES, I’d likely be going Eagles here. The Chiefs (for whatever reason) can’t really stop the run anymore, and that’s exactly when the Eagles do best. And the Eagles’ defense has looked great. But Mahomes…
Jalen Hurts Rushing Yds/Attempts - It’s worth monitoring the injury news here before going too crazy, but I could definitely see the Eagles trying to play smash mouth football, even if the Chiefs load the box.
I’ll have much more to come next week. In the meantime, enjoy the first football free weekend since September
or just miss it horribly like me
No excuses, play like a champion.