Week 6 has been pretty decent…and by pretty decent I mean incredible. I’ll have a recap out this week going over what went right and wrong for each bet, but in the meantime, check out the Week 6 Preview from Sunday.

Despite the positive momentum, total units tonight are relatively low, which is a direct reflection of my overall conviction on the game. Sometimes the read just isn’t there, and while I support betting for the entertainment value, there’s no need to force it just because you may be “hot”.

I also accidentally bet on Lazard receptions because it was right next to Conklin and I wasn’t paying close enough attention. Like I’ve said, full disclosure here at Rule 76…

Bills vs. Jets

Like Conkwork

Rodgers is a trust guy, he just is. If you’re deemed worthy in that ayahuasca brain of his, then you’re golden, at least until you’re not. Conklin seems like he’s currently there. He’s over this number in the past 3 games, including last week where he had 6 receptions on 8 targets for 55 yards.

He also happens to have a decent (top 10) matchup advantage this week according to PFF whereas every other pass catcher on both teams appears to have average to poor or negative matchups.

The Bills have also given up 6 receptions to Jonnu Smith, 4 to Dalton Schulz, and 5 to Trey McBride. Their yards per catch seem to vary, as do Conklin’s so I’m more comfortable going with the receptions here.

Yellow Spotted Lazard

Speaking of Rodgers and trust… But other than that, nothing else about this makes sense. Lazard is a TD machine but 1) his price doesn’t reflect it, and 2) he probably shouldn’t be.

Lazard currently has twice as many TDs as anyone else on the Jets; he’s scored in 60% of games, and he even has a game with two. However at this price, his implied probability of scoring is 25%. He doesn’t really have the best matchup and this is expected to be a relatively low scoring game, but I’ve been lucky with TD scorers lately, so let’s give it a shot.

Run, Josh, Run

This one is pretty simple. What does Allen tend to do in close, divisional, and/or prime time games? Run.

In addition to all of those things, his supporting cast has been suspect this year and the Jets have a noteworthy secondary.

He’s over this in 6/8 matchups against the Jets who have given him fits in the past, so I’m definitely willing to go out on this limb.

No excuses, play like a champion.