Alright folks, work got busy this week so I’m a bit behind on everything at the moment. Below is my recap for the weekend (and see Sunday’s Post for full Chargers/Texans and Steelers/Ravens recaps).

I’ll be back tomorrow or (likely) Saturday morning with bets and thoughts for the my personal favorite weekend of football of the entire year.

So far, I’m not on anything other than Dalton Schultz receptions…Chiefs and covering tight ends don’t go together.

Wild Card Weekend Performance Recap

• Wild Card: +5.2u, +11.0% return

• Cumulative: +9.8u, 1.7% return

It was a bit of a rollercoaster, but I’ll take it. Big props to Sam Darnold for proving me right that he is, indeed a pumpkin.

Before moving to the specific game recaps, I did think this was pretty interesting.

Clearly it was TB and the Teasers/Parlays that did me in for the week. I think the losses from the Chargers, Steelers, and a small part of the Bucs are totally acceptable. But the biggest chunk of that TB red bar was from lack of discipline (again) and I’m honestly pretty surprised by the size of the Other bar. Maybe teasers aren’t the way to go?

Obviously the Rams are the biggest outlier here. Without that game, I’m pretty much breakeven for the weekend. Thanks again, Pumpkin!

Teasers, Round Robins, & Parlays

These are all pretty self-explanatory and are also mostly covered in the below sections. All I have to say is how did I not include Darnold on that interception round robin?

Russell Wilson should have thrown two but the Baltimore defenders dropped it. That was a good bet…

Also in what world does neither Saquon nor Jalen Hurts score a TD? Highway robbery.

Broncos vs. Bills

The Broncos started off HOT by scoring in the first three minutes. but then they literally didn’t score for the rest of the game. Meanwhile the Bills only didn’t score on one drive.

Josh Allen was 20-26 for 272 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT and 46 rushing yards, He seemed to convert nearly every 3rd and short and honestly it started to feel like they were just cheating (similar to Baltimore).

Honestly, Denver didn’t really show up, but then again, what were they supposed to do against a postseason Josh Allen? Like I said before, they were merely standing on the tracks at the wrong time.

As for the bets, this one actually felt pretty easy given the game script. I forget the exact numbers but at some point late in the second quarter when the Bills retook the lead and were dominating the line of scrimmage, the Live lines implied Courtland Sutton would only have ~20-30 more receiving yards, James Cook would only have ~40 more rushing yards, and Bo Nix would only have like ~10 rushing yards.

None of things added up to me in a game where James Cook was cooking (pardon the pun) and the Broncos were quickly entering desperation mode…with more than half the game left to play!

Packers vs. Eagles

Philly’s Defense is the real MVP - PFF’s top rated players were Jordan Davis (DL) and Nakobe Dean (LB) although Dean left the game early with a knee injury.

Two Things Can Be True At The Same Time

Saquon shouldn’t have hit his O 103.5 yards prop, but he also should have hit his 150+ prop.

At the very end of the game, I was frantically doing clock/timeout math in order to determine if the Eagles would have to actually run a few plays, or if they could just kneel it. My conclusion? They could just kneel it. In actuality? They needed to run a few plays and get a first down.

So while Saquon is sitting a few yards shy of his Over (which I doubled down on before the game), I thought I was fully toast, until I see him enter the huddle. Why was he even out there? Even if the Eagles had to run a few plays, why wouldn’t it be Gainwell in that situation?

Saquon ended up at 102 yards for what I thought was the final play of the game, but again I was wrong and he breaks through a wide open hole with a clear pathway to the end zone, but he slid after 17 yards in order to officially ice the game.

SO, since the Eagles had virtually guaranteed victory, Saquon probably shouldn’t have even been in the game. Gainwell should have handled that last series and Saquon never should have hit his Over.

BUT since he did play and broke that run, he also could have kept running for another 59 yards, therefore cashing his 150+ line.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers

Well this is embarrassing for so many reasons. Not only did I hammer the Bucs early in the week because I was supremely confident in supporting veteran Baker Mayfield and fading rookie Jayden Daniels, but I made the biggest stink out of who do I trust more with the ball late in the game?

Baker, Baker, Baker…

Well, that bit me in the butt harder than that bullet bit Forrest Gump in ‘nam.

Baker of course lost a critical fumble late in the game that pretttttty much cost them the game. Meanwhile Jayden Daniels was superb.

On top of that, I (initially) absolutely nailed the Baker Mayfield Live rushing yards angle. There was an absolutely perfect opportunity just before the end of the first half where the Bucs were losing and Baker only had 3 rushing yards right before a two minute drill. There literally couldn’t be a better situation to take his Live line, which of course had come all the way down to 14.5 (effectively 11.5 since he already had 3).

So I ripped it at the commercial break after Washington kicked the field goal to go up 10-3 and sure enough, on the third play of the drive, Baker takes off for 18 yards. TOO EASY!

But then the darkness crept in. I thought I had solved the mathematical equation to the meaning of life and kept seeing opportunities to keep betting him, so kept hitting it…again…and again…and again.

And of course, he did not reach 25+ or any of the higher increments, although I do think had he not lost that final fumble, he would have scrambled around a few times on that drive and who knows…

Regardless, this was another lesson in discipline. I’m not upset at the early bet on the Bucs, or the rationale to back the veteran and fade the rookie. I can live with that. But the doubling down after successfully making the perfect call and then not only negating that win, but dragging those wins deep into the red territory…that is despicable.

And to make matters worse (as a Bears fan) the fact that the Commanders (remember the Week 8 hail mary) won on a made doink field goal (remember the Bears’ double doink miss 6 years ago) is just so many levels of pain.

Vikings vs. Rams

Ahhh, the sweet sweet taste of a victory lap.

There’s not much to say when my “handicap” was already so spot on.

Sam Darnold is a pumpkin.

Nice guy, but he was back to seeing ghosts again. His stats weren’t Jets’ Sam Darnold bad, but watching the game, you could tell he wasn’t comfortable AT ALL.

That’s not to take anything away from the Rams’ pass rush because they’ve been an underrated group all year long, but Sam looked like the kind of guy who knew he was costing himself literally millions and millions of dollars ever snap.

Buck and Aikman were talking about it a lot, but what do the Vikings do now? There are so many options and I’m very very very curious to see what they do. I don’t really have an opinion on JJ McCarthy yet, but all I know is I would not resign Sam Darnold. I know he was good this year, but I just don’t think you’re ever going to get what you need out of him at this time of year. He’s not a confetti QB…

No excuses, play like a champion.