I’ll start with the obvious…with the notable exception of the most delusional of Eagles fans out there, I think it’s safe to say nobody saw that coming…

The Eagles were simply dominant in all facets of the game. They made Mahomes look like a backup; Andy Reid look like an intern; and the KC pass rush look average at best.

Jalen Hurts was excellent (again) and the Philly defense was even better. What a beautiful full circle moment for the Eagles organization who, in my own harsh and oversimplified words, recognized their defense essentially cost them the Super Bowl two years ago and drafted/crafted one that essentially won them the Super Bowl this year.

Snaps for the organization and all those involved in transforming that defense from what it was to what it is. What’s it like to have capable ownership/management?

Performance Review

If you haven’t seen my Super Bowl LIX Betting Preview, check it out for more reasoning and rationale behind the bets.

If you have seen the preview, then you know my bets did NOT go well, but it’s really not surprising given how heavily levered I was to the Chiefs. And not only did they not win, but they barely even showed up…and so neither did the profits.

But like I said in the preview, that’s okay. If my bet slip went down with Mahomes, then so be it. I tip my cap to Philly and call it a season.

Thankfully my Jalen Hurts TD nuke hit, making up for losing out on Josh Allen in the Conference Championship and helping to offset the rest of my losses.

Keep scrolling for the full results and some of my takeaways from the game. Otherwise, here’s how I ended for the Super Bowl and for the full 2024-2025 season:

• Super Bowl: -9.4u, -39.8% return.

• Cumulative: +11.6u, +1.8% return (+4.1% annualized).

Chiefs vs. Eagles

The Wins

Let’s start with the wins…I’ve covered Jalen Hurts TD so many times already, and then the Patrick Mahomes live rushing props were from the same train of thought as my Baker Mayfield thesis from late last season (see prior posts).

The Losses

As for the losses, well…It’s hard to win bets when the team you bet on barely moves the ball. The Harrison Butker bets were probably good ones considering how strongly the Eagles defense played, but they were so good that KC didn’t even cross the 50 until the second half, and by that time they were down by so much that they couldn’t afford to settle for FGs.

I’m very surprised Nolan Smith didn’t even get a fraction of a sack. The Eagles had 6 in the game and Smith had a couple hits and pressures, but he never got home. I guess it was just a Montez Sweat game…

What I’m most surprised about is the losses on the Mahomes rushing attempts and Perine receiving yards.

Honestly, excluding the KC ML bets, the rest of my slip was somewhat pro-Eagles, or at least could be viewed as a hedge against my KC ML bets.

Think about it…Jalen Hurts TD and Nolan Smith sack are self-explanatory, but then Butker kicking means Chiefs would struggle in the red zone; Mahomes only rushes in close games or games in which he has to come from behind; and then Perine is typically only used in the pass game on 3rd downs and/or in trailing game scripts.

So while yes, I put my money on Mahomes to win, I surrounded that stance with a bunch of pro-Eagles / Chiefs-struggling props…and they still didn’t hit.

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts was so critical in the Eagles’ past two games and opinions on him have been so divisive this year (and in years prior), that I just want to be sure to give him his flowers.

The biggest knock on Jalen passing this year has been his time to throw which has crept up from 2.86 seconds in 2022 to 3.11 seconds in 2023 and 3.23 seconds this year. He then averaged 3.30 during the postseason and tied his season high of 3.6 seconds in the Super Bowl.

That may not sound like a lot but it really is. Hurts held the ball in this Super Bowl 25% longer than his average in 2022, and he was still effective.

Now, this can be interpreted many ways - KC’s defense didn’t generate enough pressure, Philly’s offensive line was a wall, and/or Hurts did well maneuvering and escaping the pocket in order to give himself more time.

He still only threw the ball 22 times, but with 17 completions for 221 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, he was decently efficient. Couple that with 11 carries for 72 yards, many of which came on crucial 3rd downs, and you have yourself a deserving MVP.

Other Random Thoughts

• Did Mahomes suffer a head injury on their first drive? Could that at least partially explain his poor performance? It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen a QB look to be a few degrees off after having potentially suffered a head injury. Not making excuses, but his head slammed the turf pretty good…

• If you would have told me the Eagles scored 40 points, won by 18, and Saquon Barkley only had 57 rush yards with 0 TDs, I would have guaranteed he was injured. Nope - KC was actually able to limit him, which many considered to be the recipe for shutting down the Eagles. Well, turns out that was very wrong.

• No blitzes from the Eagles defense is INSANE. Once again, snaps for the defense and the organization for building it.

• Do Mahomes and Samaje Perine have beef? During the game, the broadcast panned to the Chiefs’ sideline where Mahomes was individually reassuring and dapping up all offensive skill players, with the notable exception of Samaje Perine who stood up as Mahomes walked right past him, in an extremely awkward looking exchange. After the game, Perine said he was standing to adjust his pants strings and that “it’s not that deep.” I’m not going to speculate on that any further but I’ll tell you this, had I known there was even a chance of bad blood or weird relationship dynamics between those two, I never would have bet on Perine.

Goodbye For Now

And that’s a wrap on the NFL 2024-2025 season.

What does that mean for Rule 76?

I’m really not sure at the moment. In no particular order, here are some potential paths - I’m extremely open to your feedback and thoughts on all things, including the future of Rule 76:

• Once And Done: Close up shop. This was fun but it was a lot of time and future personal plans won’t regularly allow for that amount of time spent on a weekly basis.

• NFL Only: Embrace it for what it is - this is a newsletter specifically for betting on the NFL. Perhaps some occasional offseason updates and dissecting what it means for betting during the regular season could be in order?

• Other Sports: Honestly this is the least likely option (at least this year), but you could make an argument that both the NBA and especially the MLB are more statistically-oriented, which suits me. However, I’m not sure how it’s possible to manage betting on leagues with as many games as them. I find it critically important to watch things with my own eyes and it’s simply impossible to do that in the NBA or MLB. Perhaps there could be a focus on 1-2 teams? I don’t know - sounds like a ton of effort and the newsletter growth just isn’t there for that yet…

One thing is for sure - I’ll be taking a break from all things football and betting in the near-term.

Once again, this has all been such a fun and enriching experience for me and I can’t thank every single reader enough for following along.

Until next time, or not…

No excuses, play like a champion.