Well, it’s truly the beginning of the end. We have two more glorious Sundays left and all I can say is don’t take a single second of it for granted.

Official Picks (Not Bets)

Firstly, if you haven’t already, check out my Divisional Round Recap with early Championship Weekend bets.

Next, this part of the season is a lot more about trusting your gut as opposed to finding little nuggets in the research. There are only two games - only so many opportunities - and the books are tight.

At this point, every number is priced correctly - no amount of research or digging through the stats is going to change your mind on something. You either like it or you don’t.

You could say it’s a good time for Mizo to be six feet under…but I still miss that sort of model every day of my life.

Weather

Doesn’t seem to be an issue and actually pretty mild for Philly / Kansas City in late-January.

Parlays, Teasers, & Round Robins

Hey, it worked for me last week. I know there are only two games now, but this is by 2’s, so only 2 of these guys need to hit and money starts to roll in. As for how much, it depends on who and how many. See Round Robin math…

Commanders vs. Eagles

Key Trends / Stats

• The Commanders are the 8th 6 seed to reach the Conference Championship since 1991; only two of the previous seven advanced to the Super Bowl.

• The Eagles are playing their 5th home game in a row while the Commanders are playing their 4th away game in a row. Teams playing their fourth straight road game in NFL history are 0-7 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS.

• The Commanders have 81% fourth down conversion rate, which is the best since 1991.

• Jayden Daniels is 34th in EPA per drop back against pressure from Weeks 12-18.

Injuries

• Jalen Hurts (PHI QB) - no injury designation but is expected to wear a brace for the game. Online injury docs seems to suggest he’ll be able to pass and run in a straight line fairly well, but will likely struggle to evade and move laterally.

• A.J. Brown (PHI WR) - returned to practice on Thursday with listed knee/rest/illness. He’s obviously been quiet in the back half of the year and particularly recently. It’s not outrageous to suggest something’s not completely healthy for Brown.

• Dallas Goedert (PHI TE) - no injury designation and practiced in full on Friday (ankle).

• Cam Jurgens (PHI C) - limited practice on Friday is positive but officially listed as Questionable for Sunday (back).

• Sam Cosmi (WAS G) - torn ACL last weekend. From what I hear/read, he’s up there with Daniels and McLaurin in terms of impact level. This is a big hit against PHI pass rush.

• Daron Payne (WAS DT) - listed as questionable with knee/finger. No practice Friday and seems to be a game-time decision for Sunday.

My Thoughts

I do think the Eagles will win and cover. They are the better team in a better situation and should win this game with relative ease; however, there are certainly paths for the Commanders to continue shocking the world.

Eagles Offense / Commanders Defense

This isn’t overly insightful, but I think the biggest key to this game is Jalen Hurts’ health; not only in determining his ability to run, but also his ability to move in the pocket and effectively pass downfield.

From what I can gather, he’s pretty banged up, but well enough to play with limitations around lateral movements and pocket mobility whereas straight line speed and pocket passing wouldn’t be as much effected. Bottom line: we won’t know until the game starts. Trust what your eyes tell you.

Obviously the Eagles will likely continue leaning heavily on Saquon Barkley, whose rushing yard prop is a whopping 122.5 (and has been as high as 129.5). It has moved down but at one point it was confirmed as the highest rushing prop ever. Weirdly I still think he hits it, but that’s not the kind of place where I want to put my money. Perhaps a Live betting opportunity if he starts slow.

Anyway, the Eagles should rely on Saquon, which has proven to be pretty effective all year regardless of what the defense does. You would expect Washington to load the box and limit Saquon, which they’ve proven they can do, minus a few explosives, which can’t be ignored but are still worth separating from his game log totals this year.

That begs the questions: Are the Eagles too reliant on explosive plays from Saquon?

Probably. It’s not sustainable, but then again it keeps happening, so who’s really to judge whether that’s really a problem or not - especially against this Commanders’ defense which isn’t known to be a run-stop powerhouse (although they’ve improved throughout the year).

All that said, IF they can at least limit Saquon, they will force Hurts to beat them with his arm, which I think should be exactly what they want. Again, the Commanders’ defense isn’t a shutdown cover defense either, but we’ve talked a lot about the Eagles’ inability to move the ball through the air. Hurts has been holding the ball for literally ever. Is this the week that bites? I personally don’t think so, but it certainly could be…

If Saquon isn’t contained, he’ll probably go for 200+ again and the Eagles should win comfortably, but if he his, it’s all about Hurts’ ability to throw. A.J. Brown hasn’t looked right for a long time and he could be covered by Lattimore, meaning DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert could be explosion candidates. Which one? I’m not really sure. This could also be a Live betting opportunity if one seems to be attracting the early targets.

Commanders Offense / Eagles Defense

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…momentum is a real thing. The Commanders are feeling invincible right now and Jayden Daniels is playing at an unheard of level for a rookie. They’ve also been extremely fortunate on 4th downs, which is a highly variable statistic.

It’s not a stretch to say they are prime candidates for regression - but when? Is it this game? Is it next year? Is it in October/November next year when the Kingsbury offense gets stale? I don’t know, but I think it’s coming. See C.J. Stroud…

On this side of the ball, the key could actually be the injury to the Commanders’ right Guard, Sam Cosmi. I’m not an O-line nerd, although I’d like to be, but from what I gather, this is a HUGE loss, and comes at an incredibly unfortunate time against a strong Eagles pass rush that creates natural pressure at top tier rate. Jalen Carter has also separated himself as an actual game-wrecker. Him/Them against a backup could be an issue for the Commanders.

What should they do? Probably a lot of no-huddle play-action offense that will 1) limit the ability for the Eagles to substitute and tire out their Front 4, and 2) cause confusion in the defense with the absence of the Eagles green dot, Nakobe Dean.

Can they pull that off? I don’t know, but Daniels has been able to handle anything thrown at him recently, so I would actually be worried as an Eagles’ fan. On the other hand, if they do try to go fast and don’t succeed, they’re putting their defense back on the field REAL QUICK against the League’s best offensive line. Pick your poison…

As for props, I envision lots of play action and short passes to Ertz, as well as non-explosive sideline scrambles from Daniels.

As for Live bets, I’ll be monitoring targets for DeVonta and Goedert, a Saquon slow start, and the effectiveness of the Commanders’ first two drives. If they’re moving, it might be trouble for the Eagles, but if they get stuffed… fly Eagles fly.

Bills vs. Chiefs

Previous Bets

New Bets

Key Trends / Stats

• This will be the fourth postseason meeting between the Bills and Chiefs in the last five years.

• Mahomes and Allen and now tied for the second most playoff QB meetings in history (behind Brady and Manning).

• The Chiefs are 15-2 record in January/February at home or neutral site games under Mahomes.

• Since Week 13, the Chiefs are 23rd in rushing success rate allowed.

• Josh Allen is 6-2 with Clete Blackmon as referee.

Injuries

• Taylor Rapp (BUF S) - ruled out for Sunday with hip/back.

• Christian Benford (BUF CB) - missed practice Friday and listed as Questionable with concussion/personal.

• Taron Johnson (BUF CB) - full participant on practice Friday with no injury designation (neck/shoulder).

• Matt Milano (BUF LB) - full participant on practice Friday with no injury designation (hamstring/elbow).

My Thoughts

This one is simultaneously more familiar yet less straightforward. We all know what these teams are, and we all know what it’s like when they play each other.

Some things are a given: Mahomes and Josh Allen will be electric; Travis Kelce will turn back the clock again; and Andy Reid will have a moustache.

There will also probably be one huge mistake that ultimately decides the outcome of this game. A Josh Allen interception; a huge drop from a second/third tier Chiefs receiver; a horrendous call from Joe Brady; a failed 4th down because the Chiefs don’t tush push; a Kelce failed lateral; or most likely of all, a bad call from the refs…

Those things are highly variable and not worth trying to predict. What we do know is that both teams tend to struggle against the TE and both teams like to employ jumbo sets and 12 formation (two TEs). Once again, that should translate to success for Kelce and probably Noah Gray, as well as Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox (see my earlier bet slip).

It also means this game could start out slow as both teams feel each other out and try to establish a game plan, or in Buffalo’s sake, try to establish the run.

Secondary to that inevitable key mistake I mentioned, I think the biggest key to this game is the Chiefs’ offensive line. We’ve heard it all year long and the Chiefs somehow persevere, but it wouldn’t be shocking if the (literal) pressure overcomes Mahomes. That’s not exactly on brand for him, but still…

So what do I expect? A frustrating first half from the Bills’ offense after which everyone is yelling at their TV “LET JOSH COOK”, and an equally frustrating first half from the Chiefs’ offense where Mahomes miraculously converts 80% of third downs and only throws the ball further than 10 air yards like once.

As for the second half, I have no idea, but hopefully we’ll all just be grabbing our popcorn and enjoying the drama.

Player Props

As for props, it’s all about the TEs and I weirdly have a thing for Samaje Perine today.

Perine averages 11.5 yards per reception this year. He was Over 2+ rec in 8/18 weeks this year, which includes last week where he had 0 targets, but the Chiefs controlled that game so this really isn’t the same script. I could see a lot of third downs for the Chiefs today and high snap counts for Perine so I’m going to roll with him. The stats don’t necessarily scream it, but dare I say this is a Plums bet? 0-2 this year…

Noah Gray has been quiet. After 5 straight weeks with 20+ rec yds, including two games with 66 and 58 yards, he hasn’t seen 20 yards since Week 15. But last week he had 3 receptions and I expect this game script to give him opportunities. We’ll see.

As for the Josh Allen TD mega bet, I pretty much called it earlier in the week. +110 was an outrageous price. I said it’d be -115 by game time and it hit that on Thursday… It’s now down to -130.

As for Playoff Kelce, we’ve all seen the stats by now. I made my money last week and will pass this time. I think he still hits O 66.5 but this is a force - last week was the opportunity.

No excuses, play like a champion.