Cowboys vs. Giants

Am I Back? Last night actually went pretty well. +0.9u and one Devin Singletary rush away from going +2u (plus 0.5u worth of insurance to be played later). Once again, the ladder crushed me and I just refuse to learn my own lessons. But generally speaking, I think my Previous Thoughts on the game were actually on point, at least enough to finish in the black, which is the ultimate W.

Nabers=Monster. 115 yards on 12 receptions and 15 targets. My 6+ receptions bet was never a sweat given he nearly cleared it in the first half, but I’m still glad I went conservative with the 6+, rather than step up to the 7+ in plus money territory.

Sure, Nabers seemed to be constantly open even when everyone in the world knew he was getting the ball, but I never want to assume that will be the case.

The real kicker, and probably the biggest departure from my expected game script, was how often the Giants passed the ball. Daniel Jones had 40 pass attempts, something he’s only done a handful of times in his career.

Heading into this game, Nabers had 38% target share and 64% reception rate - quick math on 40 pass attempts suggests 10 receptions. In other words, if you told me ahead of time Jones would be throwing it 40 times, I would have hammered the 7+ receptions for Nabers, but I just didn’t think that would be the case.

Singletary Ineffective: Partly to blame for the pass-heavy game plan was the general ineffectiveness of Devin Singletary and the Giants’ run game. Singletary only had 24 yards on 14 carries, conveniently one shy of his line of 14.5 rushing attempts. He was on track to hit this Over all game but the Giants playing from behind at the end of the game ruined it. And again, I never thought Jones would pass 40 times…

Dowdle Win Erased By Stupid Ladder: Once again I managed to hit the middle of a player’s O/U and the higher alt line rungs of the ladder, which effectively nets out to $0 despite ultimately making the right call. When will I learn?!?

Dowdle had his most rush attempts (11) and yards (46) of the year and as expected, out-snapped and out-attempted Ezekiel Elliot, although am I crazy to say Zeke didn’t look too bad on his 5 attempts?

A Game Of Two Scripts: What I’m most proud of is I think my theory of one of two different game scripts playing out was correct. In the case of a Dallas win, my SGP that included Dowdle rushing yards and Singletary receiving yards hit. Obviously my other SGP with the Giants winning was a dud (but that was more or less expected); however, I feel like had the Giants’ defense made a few key stops and/or more likely, if the Giants’ offense was able to convert in the Cowboys’ territory and, I don’t know…maybe score a single touchdown, then things might have been different here - Singletary likely would have seen more usage, cashing his Over 14.5 attempts and probably hitting the higher payout SGP.

Oh well, I’ll never complain about a winning night.

Other Thoughts

• So many flags - to the point where Al Michaels hit us with a “it looks like June 14th out here, otherwise known as Flag Day, as you know.” Oh Al…

• Wan’Dale Robinson would have been a great bet - this also ties into the whole Daniel Jones throwing 40 passes thing, but still, he was targeted early and often and finished with 11 receptions on 14 targets for 71 yards. And if he just had longer arms, the Giants may have actually pulled this one out. Did you know he was below the 1 percentile for arm length in his draft class?

• Darius Slayton was perhaps the my best call of the night, even though his props weren’t listed with FD or DK. Slayton finished with 3 receptions on 5 targets for 56 yards, and it would have been more had he not dropped one and Jones not severely underthrown him on another. It’s a small sample size but his yards per reception was actually double that of Nabers and triple Robinson’s. I’ll never know for sure, but I think 3 for 56 would have cashed his receptions and yards Overs.

• CeeDee Lamb going over the Nabers when he was down for what was later diagnosed as a concussion was a heartwarming moment. Game recognizing game.

• Injury reports will be interesting to see - obviously Nabers for the Giants but then arguably the Cowboys’ best three defensive players all left early with various injuries (Parsons, Lawrence, and Diggs).

• Brandon Aubrey’s first ever 50+ field goal miss had major implications for spread bettors. Dallas ended up winning by 5 points, but would have won by 8 had Aubrey made that field goal with under a minute left to play. The opening line for this game was DAL -4.5 (✅) but it closed at DAL -5.5 (❌), which is otherwise known as a “bad beat.” This is where the value of lookahead lines and grabbing them early can pay off, and also an example of where professional bettors likely had an edge over the public, even if it was a fluke. Remember, it’s TNF after all.

Hopefully this is a sign of what’s to come in Week 4. We’re off to a good start!

Happy football, everyone!