Week 4 TNF Betting Preview

Cowboys vs. Giants

There are many reasons why this game could be considered tough to bet:

• Neither team is very good

• Divisional matchup

• Not many x-factors that can make a huge difference

• Potentially boring game plans

• Thursday Night Football is weird

In reality, a gross game like this with no clear reads should be a pass, but it’s the only game we have, and although I’m trying to do this sustainably and actually win money, sports betting for me (at its core) is about enhancing the entertainment value of a game. So pardon me while I force it.

In a situation like this, I try to mitigate the feeling of “forcing it” as much as possible by trying to do my own diligence and research. Remember, I’m just a fan too, but I think there’s value to be had in a process, even from an amateur.

So join me step-by-step as I research and ultimately decide on the bets above.

Promotions

Before diving in, it’s always important to know what we’re working with from a promo perspective. For the next few weeks I’ll be moving in and out of states; therefore, I’ll be sticking to the primary platforms, Fanduel (FD) and Draftkings (DK) for simplicity, but it’s important to shop for the best prices across all available books (including promos), even if it can be annoying.

Convenience is tough to quantify, but if you’re betting with any sort of regularity, price shopping is imperative and worth the time. Every edge counts. I’ve been using Oddschecker as a decent free resource (at least on the PC), but I plan to explore some more options.

As for props at FD and DK, tonight I have:

• Fanduel

  • No Sweat SGP - Minimum 3 legs with +400 odds or longer. Max refund of $10.

  • 50% Profit Boost - Minimum -200 odds with $50 max.

• Draftkings

  • No Sweat Bet - Minimum -500 leg(s) with $10 maximum refund.

I don’t typically go for the no sweat bets because I’ve found myself getting reckless with the resulting credits, often confusing them for real money when they’re really not - it’s an insurance policy payout in non-cash form, but it started as your straight cash.

However, tonight appears to be an exception…

On the other hand, the 50% (or any %) profit boosts are where it’s at. They’re a great way to get a minus odds bet into plus odds territory, step down the ladder on an iffy prop, or juice the bejesus out of a longshot (see my Week 1 MNF Recap with Kyle Jusczyk).

Tools & Resources

Back to the game at hand, I don’t have a ton of confidence in either of these teams, but since it’s the only game on, I want to find a corner in which I can confidently put in some action. Whenever I don’t have a good read, I like to collect the thoughts of others through podcasts, articles, social media posts, etc.

So far, this is what I have:

Podcasts & Articles

Bet the Board

• Overall, tough to determine the lean. If anything, they’re shading the Over (however it was referenced at 43.5 and the line is now at 45-45.5).

• Giants offense has been improving - not necessarily with stopping the pressure but more with how they deal with the pressure (i.e., creating quick outlets for Jones when feeling the heat).

  • Dallas’ defense hasn’t been generating very good pressure but they’re stepping down in class against the Giants. In situations where they don’t generate pressure, opponent completion percentage is high.

  • Dallas’ defense also obviously hasn’t been defending the run well recently.

• This may be the perfect opportunity for the Dallas offense to get right.

  • Dak tends to have a high completion percentage when defenses lack pressure, which the Giants haven’t been great at.

  • Dowdle rushing/receiving is an obvious look, but props have been hit in the market already.

Sports Gambling Podcast

• A bit all over the place but seem to be pro Giants and offense generally

• High on Malik Nabers and somewhat Wan’Dale Robinson

• High on Dowdle rushing/receiving yards

• Acknowledged Nabers and Trevon Diggs (Cowboys DE) offseason beef (revenge game narrative?)

The Favorites (Action Network Podcast)

• All over the Cowboys despite their recent struggles.

  • Recent struggles give value on the Cowboys and trends are pro-Cowboys (past matchups and past success from Dak against Giants).

Action Network

• As a whole, seem to be on the Cowboys and Under.

Trench Matchups

• PFF Matchups (likely requires premium)

  • Neither DAL or NYG have an advantage in pass blocking or run blocking

• Fantasy Labs

  • Neither team show up in highlighted matchups

• Rotoballer

  • Neither team highlighted

• 4for4

  • Neither team highlighted

It’s also important to check Injury Reports and Weather, both of which are typically priced in fairly efficiently, and neither of which seem to be playing too big of a role tonight - perhaps some rain, but not too much wind which seems to be the larger factor.

Decision Making

From there I take a mosaic theory approach based on how much confidence I have in in all the resources (which tends to oscillate but Bet the Board is typically #1) as well as their conviction level (easier determined from podcasts) and combine it with things like line matchups, injuries, and weather.

When it comes down to it, nobody actually knows what’s going to happen (another similarity with the stock market), so trying to get as close to an informed opinion as we can is always the best we can do.

Blindly throwing $20 on the spread is fine, but it’s no different than throwing it on red or black in a casino.

I believe a little knowledge and insight (even at an amateur level) can increase those 50-50(ish) chances, and plus, there’s nothing better than researching, taking a stance, and being correct.

That said, roulette can be fun, and sometimes you just want to have a little action on a game to make it more fun to watch.

In that spirit of both those points, and with this much ugliness and inconsistency, normally I’d probably stay away from this game, but since it’s the only one, that’s just not a very fun option. Let’s check out the following intriguing ideas:

• Malik Nabers receiving props

  • Nabers lines are around 71-73 yards on 6-7 receptions - he’s over each in 2/3 games so far.

  • Cowboys primarily play Zone defense. Nabers tends to catch more passes but for shorter yardage against zone, however the Cowboys could also shadow Nabers with Trevon Diggs, which would be interesting. I feel like receptions wouldn’t be as affected, but yards might.

  • I’m more inclined to play the receptions line than yards, but 7 is still a lot to bank on. 6+ is heavily juiced (-166) so perhaps this is a good spot for that 50% profit boost?

• Wan’Dale Robinson receiving props

  • Robinson lines are around 36-37 yards on 4-5 receptions - he’s also over both in 2/3 games so far.

  • Robinson has caught more passes vs. Man than Zone this year but the population is small.

    • Honestly, as I look at the data, the guy I want to bet on is actually Darius Slayton, but neither book has him listed. Slayton is used more against Zone than Man.

• Devin Singletary rushing/receiving props

  • Singletary’s rush line is 61.5 yards and 14.5 attempts, which he’s over in the last two games.

    • What I like here is his rushing attempts have increased from 10 in Week 1 to 16 in both Weeks 2 and 3.

  • His receiving line is 14.5 on 2.5 receptions - he’s over both in 2/3 games so far (in their losses).

  • Interestingly, his rush/rec yds line is 80.5, decently inflated vs. simply adding the two lines together.

• Rico Dowdle rushing/receiving props

  • Dowdle’s rush line is 38.5 with 9.5 attempts, which he hasn’t been over once this year.

    • Even though this is scary, it actually gives me more confidence because it means the books know something that I don’t, and that I’m on the right track.

    • His rush attempts line is 9.5 while his attempts so far this year are 8, 7, and 8.

  • His receiving line is 14.5 on 2.5 receptions, which he’s over both in 2/3 games so far (but both in losses).

  • His rush/rec yards line is 56.5, similarly inflated as Singletary.

  • He has out-snapped and out-attempted Elliot in the past two weeks. Some of that has to do with the Cowboys being down big and Dowdle being a better pass catcher, but some of it likely has to do with Dowdle simply being more efficient.

• Ezekial Elliot Under rushing yards

  • This makes sense given the reversal with Dowdle, but I’d be more inclined to do it against a better defense. Plus, it’s Jerry Jones’ team after all so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some stubbornness and affinity for Zeke…and I have enough leverage to Dowdle already.

Running Backs: The thing that stands out to me the most is that this seems like a game script kind of game. Follow me here…if the Giants win or are winning, Singletary likely hits his rushing prop and misses his receiving props while Dowdle likely hits his receiving props but misses his rushing props…and vice-a-versa for if the Cowboys win or are winning for the majority of the game.

My immediate takeaway from that would be to craft two different same game parlays (SGPs) - one for each game script outcome. I’m typically not wild about that strategy, but in this case, we have two SGP insurance credits, so it’s probably worth it.

Each SGP insurance carries a $10 max, so in my case, that’s 0.5 units (0.5u) for a total of 1u. FD carries a higher minimum odds requirement so that will automatically receive the pro-Giants parlay while the pro-Cowboys parlay will go to DK.

Nabers: Next, I really want to have some sort of action on Nabers. I think if the Giants pull off the win, he’ll have to be a major part of that equation. Meanwhile, if the Giants get blown out, Nabers likely continues to see solid garbage statistics.

Given his usage so far this season, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he’s not involved. I’m still more comfortable with the receptions vs. yards, and for whatever reason, 7 seems like so much more than 6. So let’s play it safe and go with 6+ receptions, but use the 50% profit boost to get the -166 price back to a normal -110 price. And given the confidence, how about 2u?

Back To Running Backs: The worst part about parlays is when one leg is correct but the other loses, you don’t really get the satisfaction of being right. For that reason, I want to put in a straight bet on both Dowdle and Singletary.

In this case, I feel more comfortable following the pro-Cowboys game script, so I’m going back to Dowdle. He’s been out-snapping and attempting Elliot and praised by the internet for all-around better efficiency. The Giants have not defended the run well at all, so if Dowdle continues to see increased usage, he has a good chance to go well over his line of 38.5. I could see it through more carries (in the typical 14-16 range), or in yards per attempt (stretching to 4-5+).

Back On The Ladder? Now I know I said I’d stay away from ladders, and I’ll probably regret this, but with Dowdle’s increased usage and weakness of the Giants’ defense, there’s legitimately big game potential here! I couldn’t resist taking 60+ at +260 and 90+ at +1100… we’ll see…

Singletary: Lastly, there’s Singletary. Although I think Singletary rushing props are more likely to hit in a pro-Giants script, given the recent weakness of Dallas’ run defense, I think it’d be foolish for the Giants to not try to exploit that with Singletary. O 14.5 rush attempts at -110 seems like a very fair price to me.

And that’s it - now I have action on an otherwise inconsequential game, but I have at least some conviction in what I did.

Hopefully Week 4 looks a lot more like Week 1 than Weeks 2 & 3.

Happy football!