Sunday Cleanup: Yesterday was a rollercoaster. I feel like my game script expectations were mostly on point but a few big misses brought the bets down to roughly breakeven.

Stay tuned for a full Week 4 recap following the conclusion of the two games tonight.

Titans vs. Dolphins

EW! No bets here. Will Levis is a bigger wildcard than Charlie Kelly and the Dolphins are on their 3rd QB in 4 weeks. If anything, I’d probably be on the U 37.5 or Devon Achane rushing attempts (O 14.5).

• Dolphins: I don’t have a ton of faith in Tyler “Snoop” Huntley being able to learn McDaniels’ offense in like 14 days’ time. And even if the playbook shrinks, so much of that offense is predicated on timing, which can’t be easy as a newbie. Recall when Tua went out against the Bills, it seemed like McDaniels just ran the Achane play every time. I feel like we could see something similar, but I’m not confident enough to put any quiche to work.

• Titans: Many think they are better than their record shows, but they have a schizophrenic QB under center. He burned me once, shame on me. The end.

Seahawks vs. Lions

Now we’re talkin’. I’m still hesitant to do too much here (at least around the spread) given the variance implied from tonight’s injury report.

Pound The Pride Rock (Get It?): From what I gather, tonight should feature a healthy dose of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions have the #1 offensive lineup mismatch according to PFF and are the #1 team in yards before contact (which were the foundations for the very successful Chase Brown bets yesterday).

Meanwhile, the Seahawks D-line is ranked 20th (out of 32) in yards before contact and are missing major components in Leonard Williams (DT), Byron Murphy (DT), and Boye Mafe (ED).

No Ragnow…Reminds Me Of Car Ramrod? But the Lions are also without Frank Ragnow, one of the best Centers in the NFL. One would think the net effect should favor the Lions, but it’s enough to give me a little pause. It also makes me think, if I have to pick between Montgomery and Gibbs, I’m probably choosing Gibbs who tends to run outside the Tackles vs. Montgomery who tends to run inside the Tackles (where Ragnow’s absence is presumably felt more). However, theoretically I should feel comfortable taking them both.

Only One Ball: Seattle’s defensive injuries should also afford Goff more time to throw, which is good for the Lions, but makes me hesitate a bit on the RBs. They should install a run-heavy game plan, but that doesn’t mean they will - there are a lot of mouths to feed in Detroit and only one football…

Fading Walker’s Return: The Seahawks are getting Kenneth Walker III back from from an oblique injury but the Lions have yet to let up 50+ rushing yards to any single back so far this year. They also have a negative offensive line mismatch, ranking 25th (out of 32) teams this week according to PFF. Factor in the expected game script and any potential caution around Walker’s injury, and I’m willing to bet on him not coming close to 50 yards tonight (and it’s worth noting this line opened in the mid-50’s, so I’m pretty late to the party).

Other Thoughts

• Mike MacDonald (Seahawks coach, former Ravens DC) has a knack of stopping powerhouse offenses and has specifically has had success against Goff and the Lions (Ravens trounced the Lions 38-6 last year).

• And the fact that all signs point toward Detroit makes me hesitate. I’m usually down to load up on the Lions covering at home, but something tells me to be cautious tonight.

• But are the Seahawks even good? They are 3-0 and their defense is power ranked highly, but have they really been tested? Broncos with rookie QB, Patriots, and Tua-less Dolphins…this is a huge step up in class

• This is Seattle’s 3rd game in 15 days…that’s a lot on the players and specifically the defense. Lions 2H point total is 12.5 (-125)…

• Bet the Board mentioned Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) should have a good game out of the slot; however, his box scores are a bit wonky.

• Brock Wright has seen some snaps and red zone work. LaPorta is coming off an injury. My $10 bonus bet expires tonight, so consider Wright a DART!

Happy football, everyone!