NFL Week 3 Bet Preview

Packers vs. Titans

Titan Up: All week long, everything I have consumed is pointing to the Titans. They are a couple of blocked punts and highly variable Will Levis mistakes away from being 2-0 while the Packers game-planned a convincing, yet seemingly unsustainable win against a questionable Colts team. Now the Packers are going on the road and stepping up in class against a formidable Titans defense.

Additionally, all signs point to Tony Pollard having success on the ground. Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor both had over 100 yards rushing against the Packers and if we’re playing with a game script in which the Titans are ahead, you better believe they’re going to keep the ball out of Will Levis’s hands. Pollard to the moon.

I had been flirting with pulling the trigger on this game all week (because Jordan Love was technically listed as Questionable), but I finally couldn’t wait any longer and snagged it on Friday. The line has since moved to TEN -3.0 (in our favor) now that Malik Willis has been confirmed as the starter. That sweet CLV nectar tastes so good.

Knowing the Packers, they’ll somehow burn me here, but the Titans really should win this game and Pollard should go for over 100.

Ravens vs. Cowboys

Two Words: Lamar Jackson. The Ravens’ backs are against the wall here, and they’re better than their record shows. I could easily see Lamar going hero mode here against a Dallas defense that was just exposed by Derek Carr and the Saints.

55 yards seems too low to me and I legitimately think he could hit 100 if they game stays close enough. There are also a ton of stats out there about NFC teams struggling against Lamar because they’re just not used to his speed and elusiveness.

I’m feeling full units on the rushing yards over and single TD, and I can’t help but sprinkle on both the yards and TD ladder, just in case he truly goes OFF.

Cardinals vs. Lions

Whoops, forgot to take a picture of the PFF box before it was too late. This game was DET -3 with a 51.5 O/U at the time of writing.

Pour Me Some Jameson: I expect this game to be decently high scoring and think the books have been slow to react or hesitant to adjust to Jameson Williams’ role in the Lions’ offense. I’ve written about the Lions not quite looking right, but Jameson Williams being a cornerstone is just about the only thing that seems consistent.

He’s had 200 yards on 10 receptions so far this year with Week 1 and Week 2 longs of 52 and 50 yards, respectively. It’s not unreasonable to think this line breaks in 1 catch, or maybe 2? In a potentially high scoring game with a below average defense, I’ll take Jameson Williams in the 50s ever time.

As for Kyler, I’ve heard it enough times to know the Lions don’t defend against a mobile quarterback very well. If this is a competitive and/or high scoring game, I think Kyler will be running around out there like a 5-year old who just had their first Mountain Dew.

Chiefs vs. Falcons

Whoops, forgot to take a picture of the PFF box before it was too late. This game was KC-3 with a 46.5 O/U at the time of writing.

Rice-A-Roni: The Bet the Board guys highlighted Rashee Rice’s strength against zone defense (and specifically Cover 3 zone), which is what the Falcons’ defense lives in. Rice’s line is in the high 70’s which is getting into uncomfortable territory for me. He was over the mark in Week 1 but not last week.

If we walk it down a little bit to 70+, there’s a pretty steep price discount (which actually makes me more comfortable), and getting that back to even money with the 50% profit boost feels pretty good. I don’t have any better reads on this game - the Chiefs can get cute sometimes and I’m not ready to take a position on Kirk Cousins yet.

The Chiefs seemingly don’t defend well against the tight end (see Isaiah Likely and Mike Gesicki) so Kyle Pitts is an option, but there’s also evidence to suggest Steve Spagnuolo (Chiefs Defensive Coordinator) hones in on a specific offensive weapon (Mark Andrews and Ja’Maar Chase) which opened opportunities for Likely and Gesicki, and that specific weapon on the Falcons isn’t quite as obvious. It very well may be Pitts, so I’m just eating some Rice and walking away.

Commanders vs. Bengals (MNF)

Whoops, forgot to take a picture of the PFF box before it was too late. This game was CIN -7 with a 45.5 O/U at the time of writing.

Pound. The. Rock: The Bengals can’t defend the run. Rhamondre Stevenson went for 120 with a TD and Pacheco went for 90 and didn’t even finish the game. Both those guys can run it up the gut just like Brian Robinson Jr.

It would make sense for the Commanders to try and slow the game down tonight and keep the ball out of Joe Burrow’s hands. What better way to do that than grind out consecutive 3-4 yard carries with Robinson? 16 carries at just over 3.5 yards per carry gets us there. Pound. The. Rock.

I’m also playing his TD ladder in case the above strategy works so unbelievably well that BRob goes off for multiple TDs.

We also have a flashy rookie QB playing away in a prime time slot, which always screams scrambling to me. Jayden went for 88 against Tampa Bay (in a loss) and 44 against the Giants (in a win). The Bengals are favored by 7 tonight so I’m expecting some down-from-behind panicked running from Daniels. Run, Jayden, run…but just give it to BRob in the red zone plz.

Other Thoughts: The Bet the Board called out CIN rookie TE, Erick All but there’s not enough data out there for me, plus I haven’t really watched him yet. They also highlighted comments from WAS that have been widely circulated that suggest they’d like to get scary Terry McLaurin more involved in the pass game. This makes sense considering he’s had four consecutive +1,000 yard seasons and only 39 yards combined in so far this year.

The whole rookie QB who loves to run thing turns me away here, but those 1,000 yard seasons were done with a revolving door of trash QBs, so there’s always room for McLaurin to grab some yards, especially if there’s garbage time.

Week 3 Honorable Mentions

• Giants vs. Browns: interesting situation for garbage yards? Nabers looks incredible so the sky may be the limit here. Wan’Dale Robinson is shifty and receiving yards line is in the low 30’s. Interest piqued.

• Raiders vs. Panthers: Mixed reviews overall. What is Andy Dalton in this offense? Is it a flashback to Adam Thielen time? Too much uncertainty. Raiders have been winning because they’ve been passing but then Antonio Pierce came out and said he wants to give Zamir White 20 carries this week. Who’s in charge here?

• 49ers vs. Rams: Flow chart says Shanahan owns McVay, but both these teams are so injured, the flow chart might not apply here. No Deebo, CMC, Kittle, Kupp, or Nacua, plus a whole lot of linemen and other important players? No thanks.

• Buccaneers vs. Broncos: Letdown spot for the Bucs. Action Network highlighting massive luck rankings differential (in DEN’s favor). Can’t trust a rookie QB this much. Pass.

• Jaguars vs. Bills (MNF): The Jaguars have traditionally played zone defense but have played man so far this year. Teams have learned to play zone against Josh Allen to temper his running threat. What will we see from the Jags tonight? Maybe a live bet opportunity on Josh Allen rushing yards?

  • Can’t trust Jaguars offense - all platforms highlighting poor play from Trevor Lawrence so far this year. Brian Thomas Jr. looks awesome but can’t trust Lawrence to get him the ball right now.