NFL Week 2 TNF Recap

Bad Start To Week 2: With the exception of Jonnu Smith (hero), everything from Week 2 TNF went horribly wrong with respect to the betslip. Here are the factors I was weighing heading into the game:

• Josh Allen: Historically owns the Dolphins, however he injured his left hand last week and I had no clear intel into the effect it might have on him. He also tends to have a hero mindset, particularly when playing from behind, which was to be expected in this game.

• Sean McDermott: Like Allen, McDermott has historically owned the Dolphins as well, and more specifically, he has had success in the past limiting the Dolphins’ explosive passing attack (Hill/Waddle). However, his offense has been run-heavy since the second half of last year, which wouldn’t bode as well if playing from behind (again, expected).

• Bills Defense: The Bills’ defense just gave up 26 points to the Cardinals, which seem to have a great offense, but compared to Miami at home in September? Sprinkle in a hurt Matt Milano and Taron Johnson and all signs pointed to an exploitable middle of the field - something of which I fully expected Mike McDaniel to take advantage.

• Weather: Since it was a night game, the Dolphins wouldn’t have the full effect of their typical September home field advantage (sun shining on the away bench), but it would still be humid and generally more uncomfortable for Buffalo players versus Miami players.

Hindsight is always 20-20, but looking back on those notes, I’m not sure why I was so confident in a Dolphins domination. Something about a large vulnerability in the Bills’ defense with Hill and Waddle at McDaniel’s disposal just seemed too good to pass up.

And it proved too good to be true…Hill and Waddle were held to a combined 65 yards with 0 TDs. Tua was 17-25 for 145 yards, 1 TD, and threw 3 INTs before exiting the game with yet another head injury.

The Bills dominated the Dolphins from the very beginning, but it wasn’t even Josh Allen who carried the team to victory. Allen was just 13-19 for 139 passing yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs. Kincaid and Shakir saw more targets after quiet Week 1s, but their stat sheets don’t really pop either. Rookie, Keon Coleman only saw 1 target for 0 receptions.

So where did all the offense come from? JAMES COOK, that’s where. 95 total yards of production with THREE total TDs. He and the Bills were so dominant that Ray Davis even got in for 9 carries.

The Bets: Perhaps it’s not the best strategy, but these four bets were all based off of the expected game script in which the middle of Buffalo’s defense would be hemorrhaging. In this scenario, there would be enough to go around for Jonnu Smith, the Bills would play from behind and be forced to check down to Cook and/or Allen would be forced to scramble and go full hero mode, ultimately culminating in their sad defeat to the September Dolphins.

While none of that proved to be true, the thesis on Jonnu Smith was on the right track. He led the team in receiving for most of the game and ended with 6 receptions for 53 yards on 7 targets. It felt good to hit that right away, but the entire game script being backwards right from the jump put a damper on the night.

Sometimes you just have to follow the flowchart. Hey Siri, remind me on Sunday November 3rd at 10am that Sean McDermott owns the Dolphins. See you in Week 9.