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Lookaheads
“Perhaps I’m a victim of the classic Week 1 overreaction, but I guess we’ll see.” - Max Power, riding high after a great Week 1.
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
❌ | 1u (lookahead) | DAL -6.5 vs. NO | -110 |
❌ | 1u (lookahead) | SF -5.5 @ MIN | -105 |
Source: PFF
Source: PFF
Well at least I was right about one thing…
Here I am riding high after a fantastic Week 1, thinking I am seeing the board SO clearly, and just knowing that both the Saints and the Vikings are overrated because they played trash teams in Week 1 (Panthers and Giants, respectively), and that both the Cowboys and the 49ers are the real deal for putting up 30+ points against two of the supposedly best defenses in the league (Browns and Jets, respectively).
So what does one do after they win a bunch of money in Week 1? Spend it immediately, of course - enter lookahead lines. I thought for sure I was locking in these lines ahead of their inevitable movement in my favor, creating the sweet nectar that is “closing line value” (CLV).
Fast forward to Sunday and the Cowboys -6.5 hasn’t budged (0 CLV) while the 49ers moved from -5.5 to -4 (negative CLV). No need to panic, it’s Sam Darnold and Derek Carr, what could go wrong?
Oh, I don’t know, how about everything?!?
Bingo card check…Who had Derek Carr (in Dallas) and Sam Darnold (vs. the 49ers) being the league’s passing leaders after the first hour of Week 2 football?
How about Derek Carr scoring points on all 15 of his first 15 drives in 2024?
Not me, that’s for sure. It might be a while before I head back to the Lookahead counter.
Colts vs. Packers
Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
❌ | 1u | Jonathan Taylor TD | +120 |
Previous Thoughts: Not much here for me. Malik Willis is a question mark - “experts” are touting the Packers due to the over-adjustment in the line after Love’s injury. That’s not a position I want to take, but I will take the Colts’ primary back at plus money.
Actual: Turns out the Colts were scoreless through the first half and didn’t score a TD until the final 2 minutes of the game. And Jonathan Taylor didn’t even take a snap in the fourth quarter. What in the cheesehead is that all about?!? I hate the Packers. Next.
Buccaneers vs. Lions
Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
❌ ❌ ❌ | 1u 0.5u 0.25u | Rachaad White rec ladder | 4+ -130 5+ +148 6+ +250 |
Previous Thoughts: I like the Lions here but after last week, I can’t go back to the well. Lions offensive props are interesting - with the Bucs being blitz-happy, I really like Amon-Ra St. Brown out of the slot today, but not enough to pull the trigger. Based on the expected game script (Bucs playing from behind) and the quality of Detroit’s pass rush, I expect some quick dump-offs to White. These could all hit on 1-2 drives if Baker is leading an end of half or comeback no huddle offense.
Actual: Well I’m glad my Lions hesitation from Week 1 prevented me from betting on them in Week 2. However, this Rachaad White reception ladder was based on an expected game script in which the Bucs were playing from behind. That simply didn’t happen and as a result, White finished with only 1 reception for 5 yards. Meanwhile, Amon-Ra had 11 receptions on 18 targets for 119 yards. Swing and a miss.
Other Thoughts: Dan Campbell faking a punt inside his own 20 yard line is the most Dan Campbell move of all time. And Daryl Johnston’s suit was disgusting. It’s tacky and I hate you.
Source: Reddit
Benglas vs. Chiefs
Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
✅ | 1u | Pacheco O 67.5 rushing yards | -110 |
Previous Thoughts: Pretty simple - New England bullied the Bengals’ defense in Week 1. Now the Bengals are stepping up in class against a Chiefs team that tends to play with its food when ahead. Burrow is elite but it seems like there’s merit to the injury rumors, in which case I don’t think they stand much of a chance here. Chiefs go ahead early and then control the clock with Pacheco pounding the grass like it insulted his mother.
Actual: Game script was wrong, but the Chiefs were still able to pound the rock against the Bengals. Pacheco went for 90 yards on 19 carries before exiting the game with a fractured fibula (out 6-8+ weeks).
This game actually held up to the legendary Burrow vs. Mahomes thrilling matchups of the past. The Bengals came to play, but the Chiefs once again edged out a narrow victory with what seemed like the most nonchalant 4th quarter comeback ever.
4th and 6? Who cares. Let’s push it back another 10 yards just for fun. Who cares, we’re the Chiefs so we’ll just go ahead and win. Just imagine being a Chiefs fan…
Other Thoughts:
Ja’Maar Chase had a meltdown in the 4th quarter after he thought he was the victim of a hip drop tackle. Replay seems to suggest otherwise but while he was complaining to the ref (and ultimately receiving a 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty), Joe Burrow came over to hold him back, which is to be expected (as current and former teammates, captains, etc.), but what I thought was interesting was that nobody else from the Bengals offense really helped Burrow in cooling off Chase. It was a pivotal situation late in the game and in my opinion, more than 1 teammate should have been over there. Read through those lines however you will.
The Bet the Board guys had a great call on Mike Gesicki. I didn’t know much about the Bengals’ offense and TE depth so I chose not to follow their Week 2 best bet (Gesicki O 19.5 receiving yards). He finished with 7 receptions for 91 yards on 9 targets. Big missed opportunity there. Those guys are S-M-R-T.
Giants vs. Commanders
Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
❌ ❌ ❌ | 0.625u 0.25u 0.125u | Daniel Jones TD 2TD 3TD | +270 +2400 +16000 |
Previous Thoughts: Gross, right? That’s the point. The Giants might be horrendous but they tend to own the Commanders. After Giants fans booed Daniel Jones outside the stadium last week, wouldn’t it be fitting for him to run in a couple touchdowns in a sloppy victory over the Commanders? Not a lot of research or conviction here - this is paying for the funny narrative. Probably should just take the Giants to cover, but where’s the fun in that?
Actual: The bets didn’t cash but the thought process behind them actually wasn’t too far off. The Giants led for much of the game and it looked like they might pull it off until the 4th quarter. Dan Jones rushed 5 times for 32 yards but it turns out Malik Nabers was the guy to bet on (again). He went for 127 yards and a TD on 10 receptions and 18 (!) targets, although he did drop an incredibly important pass late in the 4th that pretty much sealed the Giants’ defeat.
These were fairly longshot anyway and mostly just paying for the narrative. NO RAGRETS
Other Thoughts: The internet is all over this but the Giants LOST after scoring three TDs and giving up none…let that sink in.
Saints vs. Cowboys
Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
❌ | 1u | Kamara O 4.5 rec | -130 |
Previous Thoughts: Same thought process as Rachaad White and the Bucs. The Cowboys pass rush is going to be all up in Derek Carr’s face, which isn’t typically what Derek Carr’s face prefers. I don’t think there will be a ton of time for Olave to complete his downfield route tree, and instead think Carr might just panic dump to Kamara a thousand times. I was close to playing the ladder here but ultimately dispersed units elsewhere.
Actual: Well we’ve already covered this but I couldn’t hide from another example of me looking like a clown in Week 2. We all know what happened here, but what really grinds my gears is that this ended up being a Kamara game and this still didn’t cash. He had 4 TDs and 180 total yards…how does he not catch 5 passes in there?!?
Rams vs. Cardinals
Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
❌ | 1.25u | Rams ML | +193 (50% profit boost) 🚀 |
Previous Thoughts: FAVORITE GAME OF THE DAY ALERT! I expect this to be a high scoring fun game to watch. Big game potential for Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams but that’s more or less priced in. Kupp reception ladder is interesting but it starts at 8, which is just a little rich for me - but it feels like he could easily be in the double digits again. Even when everyone in the world knows the ball is going to him, it just doesn’t seem to matter. 2021 is calling…But the most important factor here is that Sean McVay simply owns the Cardinals - 13-2 straight up and 10-4-1 ATS. The Rams also seem to find a way to operate despite their many injuries (essentially the whole O-line and of course, Nacua who headed to the IR this week). But here’s the thing, the Cardinals’ pass rush isn’t very much of a concern. Weakness vs. weakness, I’m going with the flow chart here. Rams by a billion.
Actual: It’s actually sad to read this back. The Rams were so injured, they never stood a chance. Along with the Cowboys and 49ers, this was one of the worst games to watch in Week 2.
Other Thoughts: It was also Maserati Marv’s coming out party. After being widely trolled for a slow Week 1, Marvin Harrison Jr. WENT OFF with 130 yards on 4 receptions and 2 TDs that were both scored in the first quarter.
Chargers vs. Panthers
Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
✅ ❌ | 0.75u 0.25u | J.K. Dobbins TD 2TD | +165 +1100 |
Previous Thoughts: Prayers to anyone who is still on the Panthers. Nerds and trends support them, but sometimes a team is just really really bad. I couldn’t believe there were plus odds available for any Chargers offensive starter, let alone the RBs in a Harbaugh offense. Both Dobbins and Gus Edwards were in plus money - Week 1 snaps were roughly split but Dobbins was much more efficient. I don’t expect Harbaugh cares much about that so there’s a chance Edwards vultures us here, but lets root for Dobbins getting the majority of red zone work today.
Actual: Finally some good news. The Chargers demolished the Panthers and although Dobbins and Edwards still split carries, they each had a typical game’s worth of carries (17 and 18, respectively). However, Dobbins’ TD came on a breakout 43-yard run, which probably isn’t super sustainable. I don’t plan on revisiting this well anytime too soon.
Other Sunday Plays
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
✅ ✅ ✅ | 1u | LAR/ARI O 41.5 CIN/KC U 53.5 PIT/DEN U 42.5 | +140 (3-leg 6 point teaser) |
✅ ✅ ❌ | 1u | Kyren Williams TD James Conner TD Isiah Pacheco TD | +733 (50% profit boost - FD promo) BOOST |
Previous Thoughts: The teaser is essentially a watered down version of my most convicted side/totals of the week.
Rams/Cardinals should be electric
Chiefs play with their food
Justin Fields road favorite and TJ Watt vs. a rookie QB? No. Simply no.
And the touchdown parlay was a way to use the FD promo. Very chalky but could easily see all of these guys getting in at least once today. We’ll see.
Teaser: The teaser was pretty much spot on. We already discussed the Rams/Cardinals not really being what I thought it would be but the over still hit (even un-teased). KC and PIT Unders feel like pretty safe going forward…
Touchdown Parlay: This one actually hurts a little because after Williams and Conner scored early, all that was left was Pacheco in a close game with the Bengals who were not defending the rush well. In the end, it didn’t hit, and Pacheco literally broke his leg, but we were close - this one felt good.
That’s it - let’s hope that’s the worst betting Sunday of the season. Onto MNF and hoping Saquon can erase some of these losses.