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Falcons vs. Eagles
Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
✅ | 1u | Saquon Barkley O 19.5 rec yds | +125 (50% Profit Boost) 🚀 |
❌ | 0.75u | Saquon Barkley O 25+ rec yds | +125 |
❌ | 0.25u | Saquon Barkley O 60+ rec yds | +1100 |
Previous Thoughts:
The Falcons are coming off a very weird Week 1. Cousins took nearly 0 snaps from under center, ran 0 play action plays, and barely left the QB pocket against the Steelers. The Falcons have said he’s fine and will utilize play action in this game, but this is too much variance for me. I like Bijan Robinson receiving props in a game script where the Falcons are playing from behind, but there’s nothing here in which I’m confident enough to play.
For the Eagles, the biggest question to answer is where do the injured A.J. Brown’s targets go?
DeVonta Smith is the natural answer.
Dallas Goedert also seems appropriate, but those seem more or less priced in.
We could go further down the WR depth chart, but there’s too much uncertainty there for me.
What about Saquon? He had two receptions on two targets for 23 yards last week and he ran a route on 86% of passing snaps.
The Falcons mostly play zone, and I could see Saquon just sitting down in the middle of the field and catching four or five 5-10 yard receptions, especially with the absence of A.J. Brown.
His line is oscillating between 18.5-19.5 at the time of writing, which seems like a smash to me - and then plus money on the alt line at 25 feels good too.
And if we’re taking one step on the ladder, we might as well go one more in case he breaks a big one - sprinkle on 60+ yards at +1100 just in case.
Like any bettor, I was pretty much just watching Saquon and hoping Hurts would dump it off to him - especially when it was clear that Saquon receptions weren’t really part of the game plan to fill Brown’s void.
DeVonta Smith finished with 7 receptions on 10 targets for 76 yards and a TD (good, but probably as expected?) while Goedert only had 3 receptions on 4 targets for 38 yards (OK, but I think under his line). It was really Britain Covey who stopped the gap with 6 receptions on 6 targets. He only had 23 yards but it seemed like Hurts was looking for him often.
Eagles Trigger Warning: After a relatively boring first three quarters, the Eagles entered the 4th quarter down 15-10 and Saquon was sitting at a meager 9 yards receiving. He’d been crushing it on the ground but they really weren’t using him in the pass game at all…that is, until the 4th quarter.
The Eagles proceeded to methodically march downfield to score a go-ahead TD while chewing up more than half the fourth quarter clock AND giving Saquon 7 more receiving yards in the process. We just need 4. MORE. RECEIVING. YARDS.
The Falcons are now down 3 with just under 7 minutes to play. They quickly reach 4th and 1 on their own 39 yard line, but they have to go for it. At this point, I think I’m hoping they get it? If the Eagles stop them, they will most likely just run the clock out and my Saquon receiving ladder will just join the pile of garbage that is the rest of my Week 2 bet slilp. But if the Falcons convert and quickly go downfield to score, perhaps the Eagles will be more aggressive and throw the ball?
4th and 1. STUFFED. My bets are as good as dead.
But the Eagles start passing the ball when they get it back?!? Do we have life? We only need 4. MORE. YARDS.
And then there it is, on 3rd and 3 with 3:40 left to play, a 4-yard reception to Saquon for a first down. We’re looking good but have to be wary of negative receiving yards which isn’t entirely out of the question. Plus, now we’re in range of that 25+ alt line.
And also given the way I structured the unit dispersion, cashing just the Over doesn’t do much other than cover the alt line bets, so really we need that 25+ alt line to cash in order to win more than a few shekels.
The Eagles keep driving and chewing clock until they reach another 3rd and 3 on Atlanta’s 10 yard line with 1:46 left in the game. They already forced Atlanta to burn all three of their timeouts so surely they must run it here. Even if they don’t convert, they can kick the field goal and waste 40 seconds of game clock in the process. Best case for Atlanta, they get the ball back with a minute left and no timeouts.
Well guess again - how about a play action dump off to Saquon that will surprise everyone, including Atlanta’s defense, and he’ll waltz into the end zone for the game-sealing TD and cash my 25+ alt line bet?!?
WRONG! Saquon DROPPED the pass, and with it, all of my hopes for recouping some sizable Week 2 losses.
And more importantly for the greater Philadelphia area, it stopped the clock, giving Atlanta 40 much needed seconds of game clock.
But they have no timeouts and an aging/recovering QB in a new system in a hostile environment…there’s no way they can come ba-TOUCHDOWN FALCONS
Source: PFF
Kirk Cousins sliced and diced the Eagles’ defense like a Thanksgiving turkey (in tin foil, of course) and scored in just over a minute.
22-21 Falcons, and it all happened so fast that now the Eagles will get the ball back with 34 seconds left to play.
Is the Saquon alt line still ali-INTERCEPTION. Game over.
Kirk Cousins stuns in prime time.
In a callback to an earlier post, Michael Penix Jr. has left the chat…
Week 2 Summary
-6.8u with only a few bad beats. In other words, I was way off, and this was simply a bad week.
Lessons Learned:
Stay Humble: Just because Week 1 went well, doesn’t mean you’re a genius crystal ball reader, particularly early in the season.
Stay Disciplined: The previous week’s results shouldn’t dictate your unit variance. It should be determined by opportunity, not past results. In other words, don’t bet significantly more just because you have cushion, and don’t bet significantly less just because that cushion eroded a bit. Develop a strategy around your weekly “value at risk” (VaR) and try to stick to it, with flexing up/down being mostly determined by the opportunity in front of you (good prices, strong reads, etc.).
Don’t Hide From Failure: I wanted nothing more than to just bury this newsletter and pretend this week didn’t happen. It’s not nice to advertise your failures, but that’s part of the process. Time to get back up and try again.