NFL Week 2 Bet Summary

Lookaheads

• Lookaheads: There’s value to be had on lookahead lines. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s something I’ll be trying to do more.

  • Saints/Cowboys: In this case, I thought the Cowboys looked a lot better in Week 1 than what I interpreted the general consensus opinion on them to be during the preseason. The inverse could be said about the Saints. In that case, I thought a line move in the Cowboys’ favor could be seen throughout the week, therefore creating value on locking in at -6.5. Turns out the line didn’t move so no value there. Oh well, go Cowboys?

  • 49ers/Vikings: I used the same logic as the above to arrive at 49ers -5.5. As we stand an hour before kick, that line has moved down to -4.5. In other words, my lookahead generated negative value. Sick.

    • Perhaps I’m a victim of the classic Week 1 overreaction, but I guess we’ll see…

Thoughts: Not much here for me. Malik Willis is a question mark - “experts’ are touting the Packers due to the over-adjustment in the line after Love’s injury. That’s not a position I want to take, but I will take the Colts’ primary back at plus money.

Thoughts: I like the Lions here but after last week, I can’t go back to the well. Lions offensive props are interesting - with the Bucs being blitz-happy, I really like Amon-Ra St. Brown out of the slot today, but not enough to pull the trigger. Based on the expected game script (Bucs playing from behind) and the quality of Detroit’s pass rush, I expect some quick dump-offs to White. These could all hit on 1-2 drives if Baker is leading an end of half or comeback no huddle offense.

Thoughts: Pretty simple - New England bullied the Bengals’ defense in Week 1. Now the Bengals are stepping up in class against a Chiefs team that tends to play with its food when ahead. Burrow is elite but it seems like there’s merit to the injury rumors, in which case I don’t think they stand much of a chance here. Chiefs go ahead early and then control the clock with Pacheco pounding the grass like it insulted his mother.

Thoughts: Gross, right? That’s the point. The Giants might be horrendous but they tend to own the Commanders. After Giants fans booed Daniel Jones outside the stadium last week, wouldn’t it be fitting for him to run in a couple touchdowns in a sloppy victory over the Commanders? Not a lot of research or conviction here - this is paying for the funny narrative. Probably should just take the Giants to cover, but where’s the fun in that?

Thoughts: Same thought process as Rachaad White and the Bucs. The Cowboys pass rush is going to be all up in Derek Carr’s face, which isn’t typically what Derek Carr’s face prefers. I don’t think there will be a ton of time for Olave to complete his downfield route tree, and instead think Carr might just panic dump to Kamara a thousand times. I was close to playing the ladder here but ultimately dispersed units elsewhere.

Thoughts: FAVORITE GAME OF THE DAY ALERT! I expect this to be a high scoring fun game to watch. Big game potential for Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams but that’s more or less priced in. Kupp reception ladder is interesting but it starts at 8, which is just a little rich for me - but it feels like he could easily be in the double digits again. Even when everyone in the world knows the ball is going to him, it just doesn’t seem to matter. 2021 is calling…

But the most important factor here is that Sean McVay simply owns the Cardinals - 13-2 straight up and 10-4-1 ATS. The Rams also seem to find a way to operate despite their many injuries (essentially the whole O-line and of course, Nacua who headed to the IR this week). But here’s the thing, the Cardinals’ pass rush isn’t very much of a concern. Weakness vs. weakness, I’m going with the flow chart here. Rams by a billion.

Thoughts: Prayers to anyone who is still on the Panthers. Nerds and trends support them, but sometimes a team is just really really bad. I couldn’t believe there were plus odds available for any Chargers offensive starter, let alone the RBs in a Harbaugh offense. Both Dobbins and Gus Edwards were in plus money - Week 1 snaps were roughly split but Dobbins was much more efficient. I don’t expect Harbaugh cares much about that so there’s a chance Edwards vultures us here, but lets root for Dobbins getting the majority of red zone work today.

Other Plays

Thoughts: The teaser is essentially a watered down version of my most convicted side/totals of the week.

• Rams/Cardinals should be electric

• Chiefs play with their food

• Justin Fields road favorite and TJ Watt vs. a rookie QB? No. Simply no.

And the touchdown parlay was a way to use the FD promo. Very chalky but could easily see all of these guys getting in at least once today. We’ll see.

Happy football!