We’re entering the last three weeks of the regular season and the majority of playoff implications currently sit within the NFC. Tonight is an AFC West showdown featuring two teams that are regularly discussed as frauds, but in all likelihood will both make the playoffs, and then promptly lose in the first round.

There’s a chance Bo Nix has some fireworks tonight, but I think there’s a better chance we’re in for a snoozer tonight. Hopefully not as bad as last week (which would be hard to do), but I’m not terribly excited for this one, and the bet slip reflects it.

Let’s dive in anyway…and don’t forget to share Rule 76 with a friend! (link below)

Broncos vs. Chargers

The Picture

The Chiefs already locked up the AFC West, so the Broncos and Chargers are both playing for Wildcard spots, but honestly they both have a decent chance of getting in regardless of the outcome of tonight’s game. That said, a loss can only hurt…

Since the Chargers are technically behind the Broncos, you could make an argument that they have more to play for.

Recency Bias

The Broncos are coming off four straight wins, but they’re all against opponents of questionable strength.

The Chargers are coming off two straight losses (and 3 of their last 4), but all against respectable opponents.

What does that mean in terms of “the market”? It means the Broncos are likely “overvalued” and the Chargers are likely “undervalued” in the world of public perception - i.e., this is a Chargers spot. Additionally, home teams tend to fare well on TNF.

BUT, Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey are both playing through injuries and the offense just really hasn’t looked right lately. Perhaps you chalk it up to strong opponents, or perhaps you just think the Chargers’ offense really isn’t that good.

I tend to side with the ladder…the line has also moved in favor of the Broncos (signaling professional money) so I’m definitely NOT on the Chargers tonight.

However, I’m also not confident enough in the Broncos to put my money on them either. Bo Nix is still a rookie and he is always live for a bad game. Last week, for example, was a terrible week, but it was against a decent Colts’ defense. Well, tonight shouldn’t be much different, and likely even more difficult.

Another Fraud-Off

At this point, I feel like I’m already going in circles, and that’s likely because the general discourse out there consists of a lot of fraud talk around both of these teams.

Without getting too much into detail, is it possible both camps are right? And that both of these teams go to the playoffs anyway? And that unless one of them luckily pulls the Texans, both of them would be an auto-loss against the Chiefs, Bills, or Steelers?

Yes…I actually think that’s exactly what’s going to happen. And in that case, we actually won’t know if these teams are frauds. Maybe they both are? Maybe neither are? Maybe they’re just in that tier of better-than-most but nowhere-close-to-the-best? And that’s okay.

Kicking & Screaming

Despite all of the above, I tend to think both teams will be able to move the ball tonight, and I’d expect the Broncos to have more success through the air relative to both the ground and to the Chargers.

But will they be able to score TDs? I actually don’t think so… The Chargers and Broncos are the #1 and #2 teams in defensive red zone to TD convergence, respectively. Both are significantly better than the rest of the League with only allowing ~40% of red zone trips to turn into TDs. And on the other side, Denver’s offense is #10 and the Chargers are #16.

That’s the exact makeup I look for when making kicker bets, and apparently I’m awesome at it.

So tonight, instead of taking each kicker, I found the total field goals in DraftKings and decided to take those for a whirl. That way, if either team is actually able to score TDs (or conversely isn’t able to move the ball at all), it’s still possible for the whole thing to hit. Obviously, this will only be field goals, and not PATs going towards total Kicker points, so my thesis needs to be exactly right in order for this to hit.

I’m going to keep putting this in here until someone tells me to stop…

Courtland Sutton Dart

For the reasons stated above, I feel like there’s actually a chance there’s no TDs scored in tonight’s game, which would be the second week in a row and a statistical anomaly.

But another weird outcome that I could actually see is that Courtland Sutton scores the one and only TD of the game, and with the way this is structured, it still works if he catches the first and last in case there are other TDs in between.

Overall, extremely unlikely but that’s reflected in the price - I still wanted something fun to root for tonight.

Honorable Mentions:

• DEN ML +126

• U 41.5 -115

• Courtland Sutton O 62.5 rec yds

• Bo Nix O 21.5 rush yds

For the record, the reason I’m not actually taking the Under, even though my Field Goal thesis is pretty much the same thing, is because I’m worried Bo Nix could actually have a breakout game as easily as he could have a dud one. The Chargers secondary has looked like a pass funnel to me lately and if Bo’s on and Payton lets him sling it, I could see them scoring 30+ tonight with mega games from Nix and Sutton.

No excuses, play like a champion.