It’s Week 16 and we have our first day of Saturday NFL! But let’s be honest, today isn’t about the NFL, it’s about the College Football Playoff.

We at Rule 76 are currently only focused on the NFL (from a betting perspective), but this is college football history and it needs to be watched.

That said, these are technically standalone (Prime Time?) NFL games, so it’d be irresponsible not to bet on them, right?

Texans vs. Chiefs

Steelers vs. Ravens

Unders? Ew!

That’s right. As evidenced by the teaser, I’m expecting both of these games to be low scoring and close. Both games will have some weather and all four teams have solid defenses and nearly 100% chance of all making the playoffs (only the Ravens aren’t guaranteed at 98% likelihood).

AFC Playoff Picture

Weather

There are obviously many sources, but I’ve grown accustomed to Rotogrinders. It’s simple and easy to understand without all the annoying ads that typical weather sites have.

HOU/KC: Honestly, temps in the mid-30s with only light wind shouldn’t have too big of an effect on a game, but the Texans are a southern dome team, so if anything, I could see the biggest effect being on the Texans’ offense.

PIT/BAL: These teams are obviously used to playing in the elements but the potential wind could make things interesting here. Both of these teams do a good job of stopping the run with a relatively weaker secondary, so keys to success on offense should be passing. But 15-20 mph winds seems (to me) to be the line where passing can be affected. We’ll see.

Remaining Thoughts

Texans: I think this game will be entirely dictated by the Texans’ offense. We know the recipe for beating the Chiefs is through the air. At first glance with CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell, you’d think that’d be easy, but if you’ve watched the Texans this year, it just doesn’t look right. To me, Stroud looks like he’s scared in the pocket. Mix in a little weather and a dose of Chris Jones and I think it’s another anemic game for the Texans’ offense. However, if you’re a Texans believer, this would be the time to stack up on passing/receiving props. Collins is pretty high but Dell, Woods, and Schultz all look pretty good. Also, remember the Chiefs are weak against the Tight End.

Chiefs: The line on this game has swung a full touchdown in favor of the Chiefs due to speculation around Patrick Mahomes’ health. We’ve seen him play through a high ankle before, and I’d expect nothing less, but you have to ask yourself: is this game really worth it? Particularly with a short turnaround on Christmas against the Steelers’ pass rush. But honestly, whether it’s Mahomes or Carson Wentz, the Chiefs play with their food so I trust them to allow this game to be close and relatively low scoring.

PIT/BAL: The scouting report on this game hasn’t changed much from a few weeks ago. We know the formula here: Tomllin as a dawg, and particularly as a divisional dawg. The Steelers are Lamar’s kryptonite. It’s formulaic and automatic. But…George Pickens is out again and we know he’s the key to opening up this Steeler offense. Who will step in? Calvin Austin probably? But then there’s the weather and particularly the wind. Can either team do what’s necessary in the pass game to separate themselves today? Candidly, I’m hoping not and that this reverts back to what we’re used to for a December AFC North matchup. Give me a 16-13 game and I don’t care who wins.

TD Long Shots: Betting a couple TD scorers on a slate full of Unders may seem counterintuitive but 1) it’s maybe a bit of a hedge, and 2) these prices just seem off to me. Noah Gray is morphing into the new Travis Kelce and for Dalton Schultz, we know the Chiefs are weak against the tight end. I would’ve expected these prices to be at least half of what they were - worth a few Sheckles to me.

No excuses, play like a champion.