NFL Week 1 Sunday Recap

Vikings/Giants: In Darnold We Trust? Who had Sam Darnold completing his first 11 passes and ultimately finishing with a 113 QBR on their NFL Sunday bingo card? Not me. Surely Justin Jefferson must have went nuclear, right? Not really. I mean, he led the team but only with 4 receptions on 6 targets for 59 yards, and he did have a TD. Still a decent game but probably below the mean for JJ, right?

So where did the offense come from? Darnold completed passes to EIGHT different receivers on Sunday, and thanks to a permanent lead over the Giants, the Vikings lead backs ran the ball 22 times, including 14 from former Packer, Aaron Jones for 94 yards and a TD. Can I like him now, or are the Vikings a legitimate NFC North threat too? Unclear.

In Dan Jones We Don’t Trust: Except for me a little bit because consider Malik Nabers O 61.5 receiving yards pounded (and cashed).

In my mind, this game had two realistic paths: 1) the Giants play from behind, in which case Nabers should get some garbage yards, likely enough to cash what I suspect will end up looking like a pretty low Week 1 Over, or 2) the Giants miraculously win, for which you have to think Nabers is the primary catalyst. And those are both despite Dan Jones being largely incapable.

And you have to think the same train of thought applies to pretty much the rest of the Giants schedule, right? If Nabers is going to average +10 yards per reception, if we see his line in the low-60s again, I think we have to smash. However, we have two things to consider:

1) Wan’Dale Robinson led the team in targets (11) and receptions (6). Plus, he had a rush for 14 yards (the Giants’ longest of the day). Perhaps the Vikings just aren’t as good against the slot, or perhaps Robinson becomes the favorite target.

2) The Dan Jones saga is far from over. Recall last year he signed a 4-year $160m contract with $36m signing bonus and $92m guaranteed. That’s a recipe for salary cap disaster, but when you have fans booing your QB outside the stadium after Game 1, perhaps a change is gonna come. Read Through: the equation for Nabers may change at some point this season, and hopefully for the better.

Come From Behind Victory For The Buffalo Josh Allens: In what should be a surprise to absolutely nobody, Josh Allen put the team on his back with FOUR total touchdowns to help the Bills outscore the Cardinals 24-11 in the second half and ultimately win 34-28.

What was surprising to me was the lack of Dalton Kincaid being used to fill the Stefon Diggs sized hole in Buffalo’s offense this year. Diggs led the team with over 100 receptions and 30% total target share last year, nearly double that of the next most receiver (tight end), Dalton Kincaid with 73 receptions on 17% target share.

Naturally, you’d think Kincaid would see an increase in target share in the absence of Diggs, particularly given their familiarity in Week 1 while Allen builds rapport with his new seemingly #1 receiver, Keon Coleman. WRONG. Kincaid had ONE reception for 11 yards on ONE target, and of course no touchdowns!

To be clear, +165 equates to an implied probability of 38%. If you asked me pregame if I thought there was a >38% chance Kincaid gets a touchdown in a Diggs-less offense against an undeniably weak Cardinals defense, I take that bet 10/10 times. Shows what I know…

AND ANOTHER THING, how did Trey McBride only get 1 red zone target? Last year, McBride was tied with Marquise Brown for the most Red Zone targets. Brown isn’t on the team anymore. Insert Marvin Harrison Jr. but he might as well not even suited up last weekend (1 catch for 4 yards on 3 targets), so McBride has to be the obvious choice.

Sure, most of the offense was going through James Connor, and the Cardinals offense only scored two touchdowns despite scoring 28 points, but again, if you look at the implied probability (+210 = 32%) against a Matt Milano-less Bills defense and with a healthy/focused Kyler Murray, I’m taking that 10/10 times. Oh well, 0-2 on this game.

Giddy Up Nix: Bo Nix wasn’t very good in his NFL debut, going 26-42 for 138 yards, 0 TD, and 2 INTs. But watching this in the background, I didn’t think he looked like a fish out of water. It seemed like he was looking downfield and at least trying to go through his progressions. So I looked up his ADOT (average depth of target) and he ranks 25th out of 32 eligible quarterbacks from Week 1. Not great. However, he’s tied with Patrick Mahomes (so maybe no too bad?)…but also Justin Fields (nevermind).

But I wasn’t in it for his passing - The SGP guys were on his rushing props based on his play at Oregon and the logical outcome of debuting a rookie QB amongst the Seattle 12. With plus money on 25+ rushing yards TD odds at +600 (14% implied probability), I was willing to take a flyer, and even though Nix wasn’t exactly looking to run, it ended up working out.

Walker In The Park: And then of course, courtesy of our good friends at Fanduel, a 50% profit boost got Kenneth Walker III TD into plus money territory, which on opening weekend, at home, and in one of the few weeks the Seahawks will be favored by a touchdown, seemed like a good bet. Put another way, -120 odds = 55% implied probability. The boost to +125 means we got a plus money bet that is expected to hit more than half the time. I’ll take it.

Definitely a little lucky with Nix, but sometimes that’s what it takes. I probably won’t be looking at his rushing or TD props again any time soon, but we’ll see what the approach is. Downfield passing wasn’t exactly working, but something tells me Sean Payton advocating for a dual threat quarterback isn’t really in the cards either.

Watson Cooked? Deshaun Watson was 24-45 for 169 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. His accuracy downfield was suspect and overall he just looked uncomfortable. But am I crazy to say the degree of criticism is a bit much?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a fan of the player (or human) that is Deshaun Watson, and I’m very much a fan of everything Jameis Winston, but was Sunday’s game entirely on Deshaun? He was pressured on 24 of his 56 dropbacks - that’s the most of any QB this week and in the undesirable company of Bo Nix (22/51) and Daniel Jones (22/50).

With a clean pocket, Watson’s completion % improved from 33% (under pressure) to 63%, which is about middle of the pack compared to the rest of the league. I’m not arguing he was Tom Brady with a clean pocket, but I also don’t think it’s necessarily worth calling for his job after Week 1…

Maybe we just need to give more flowers to the Cowboys’ pass rush. Dallas had THREE players in the top 50 for pass rush win percentage against what’s supposed to be a pretty good Cleveland O-line. Don’t worry, I’ll be ready to fade the Cowboys in January, but maybe they’re not a dud this year.

Lucky Ford: Anyway, this game was about grabbing a Jerome Ford TD with plus odds. Ford was expected to get the majority of RB snaps (ended up being 88%) at home with what I was expecting to be a struggling Deshaun Watson.

+130 = 43% implied probability and +800 = 11% implied probability. If we replay this exact game scenario 10 times, do I think Ford scores at least once more than 4 times and twice more than once? I think so - not my highest conviction level, but enough to place that bet at a partial unit size.

Turns out we got pretty lucky again with a garbage TD coming with 0:33 left in the 4th quarter, down 23. Ford probably shouldn’t even have been playing.

Oh well - we’ll take the small W.

Other Bets From Sunday

Texans/Colts: Honestly, I don’t follow the Colts too closely but every time I watch, I feel like all I see is Michael Pittman Jr. receptions. Texans/Colts just felt like a high scoring game waiting to happen, so why wouldn’t Anthony Richardson be slinging it to Pittman Jr?

He ended up leading the team with 7 targets but only caught 4 of them for 31 yards. Alec Pierce was the standout with 125 yards on 3 receptions, including that 800 yard BOMB from Anthony Richardson that seems to be playing on repeat all over the internet. Should have just taken the Over…

Other Thoughts: I’ve heard enough from the “experts” to know that Anthony Richardson is officially synonymous with “variance”. On one hand, variance presents opportunity, but on the other hand, it also requires diligence. One should pick their spots with Richardson and be mindful of injury risk. I’ll probably stay away for now until I educate myself a bit more on all things Colts.

Steelers/Falcons: In my mind, this one was a no-brainer. At first I thought it was a typo and this line was meant to be 34 (which still would have hit). You’re going to give me 43 points with Justin Fields on one side and the Stillers Defense against an aging QB recovering from an achilles tear on a brand new team on the other side? I’ll take that in the 40s every day of the week and should have bet the alts.

Other Thoughts:

• Kirk Cousins looked borderline immobile. Kirk took almost every snap from shotgun (not his norm) and ran 0 play action plays… Michael Penix Jr. has entered the chat.

• The Steelers won in the most Steeler fashion ever (I would know as a Bears fan). And it was only fitting to have Justin Fields under center.

• If Watt stays healthy, he has to be DPOY and possibly in the running for MVP…

• The internet has covered this extensively but Russell Wilson dressing in full pads and eyeblack despite being INACTIVE is the most Russell Wilson move of all time.