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- NFL Week 1 SNF Recap
Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
✅ | 0.5u | Lions ML | -105 (50% profit boost) 🚀 |
✅ | 1u | Lions -4.5 | +134 (50% profit boost) 🚀 |
❌ | 2.5u | Lions O 29.5 points | -108 |
Lions = SWEAT. Along with Isaiah Likely O 1.5 receptions, the Lions winning, winning by a lot, and scoring a lot in the process was my highest conviction play(s) of the week. I loved everything about this matchup and the prospect for the Lions to curb stomp the Rams. I’m not a trend better, but:
The Lions are 19-8 ATS at Home with Dan Campbell.
The Lions were 12-5 ATS last year.
Jared Goff is 7-0 ATS and 5-2 straight up in Week 1 in his career.
Jared Goff is 14-3 ATS when playing indoors.
Jared Goff is 15-11 ATS at Home with the Lions.
The Rams lost Aaron Donald and have an unproven Defense.
The Lions have a largely unchanged offense, including Offensive Coordinator, Ben Johnson, who easily could be a head coach right now.
All that said, I’m a Stafford believer, hence the unit distribution shading more towards Lions total points, as opposed to the spread. What I didn’t account for was the ability for Stafford, McVay, and the Rams’ offense to control the football as much as they did. Look at this distribution:
Source: PFF
Where was Amon-Ra St. Brown? He only had 3 receptions for 13 yards on 6 targets… That’s fewer yards than any week last season! Sure, Jameson Williams looked great (5 rec for 121 yards and a TD on 8 targets) and the Lions had been indicating higher usage for him all offseason, but when the chips are down, St. Brown has to be the guy.
Anyway, after the Lions went up 17-3 at the start of the second half, the Rams scored 17 unanswered points to go ahead by 3 with 4:35 left in the game. Fortunately the Lions responded and kicked a game-tying field goal with 0:20 left to play. At this point, I know my 2.5u bet is toast and am just hoping for a Lions cover, or at least straight win to recoup some of the losses.
Even more fortunately, the Lions won the OT toss and promptly went right down the field to score the game winning TD. Both teams (especially Defenses) seemed pretty gassed by the end of the game - I have a feeling whoever won that toss would have won the game. Perhaps a bit more luck was in store for us.
Other Thoughts: I won’t be rushing to place another 2.5u bet and the Lions went down a few pegs on my trust ladder, but they ended up winning/covering and leaving me with less than a 1u loss.
And the sweat? Priceless.